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Chart of the Day for WEDNESDAY 09-15-04
ORCL:
Tuesday, the stock traded down to closed at ($10.55) off (-.07c). Last night
after the close the Co reported their Q1 (Aug)
earnings of $0.10 per share, $0.01 better than the consensus of $0.09; revenues
rose 6.9% year/year to $2.21 bln vs the $2.23 bln consensus.
Co reports Q1 software revs of $563 mln, vs the consensus of $556.3 mln. On
conf call the Co says 'gratified by judge Walker's ruling last week'. Co is 'commited
to the transaction'. Will be rigorous on financial metrics: GAAP EPS accretion;
platform combatibility with co's margins; return on invested capital; and make
sure that it does not impair co's L-T balance sheet strength and quality. Co
expects Q2 revs in the range of $2.58-2.66 bln (approx 3-7% growth), consensus
is $2.66 bln; co does not expect to get positive currency benefits for the
remainder of fiscal year. Co expects new software license revs to grow between a
range of -2% to +8%; total software revs are expected to grow between 5-10%;
best guess new software license revenue growth is at the middle of the range or
at 3%. co is 'losing foreign exchange tail winds' in Q2. co is 'comfortable'
with the analysts consensus Q2 EPS estimates of $0.13. for N-T co expects a
slowly improving economy, may pause with the U.S. presidential election and
Sarbanes Oxley. Co states oil prices and rising interest rates may also have a
dampening impact. Co asked about hard prior year Q2 comparisons and global
economies: Co believes their has been general purchasing improvement around the
world. co's states applications pipeline is better and the strongest it has been
around. believes U.S. pipeline is the strongest right now. co believes can still
see growth over tough prior year comparisons, states that have some deals that
were supposed to close in prior quarter that will slip into this quarter.
After-hours activity;
MOM research Admins took notice that some muscle players started slowly
buying-up the stock right after the close on high volume. The stock then started
to slowly trended up where first call players got the news before it hit the DJ
news wire forcing the stock moved to the upside. The stock then popped to $11.10
right after the news post, then the stock pulled back a bit then retraced into
the CC. The stock then drifted back again to finished the post market session at
$10.93.
Let take a technical look at the numbers for today's trading.
Above $11.00 with conformation @ $11.03 the stock can make an upside move to
$11.12, $11.20, then $11.31` providing the futures are moving to the upside from
the pre-market open at 8:00 am ET into the 9:30 market open. If so other upside
numbers are $11.42 then $11.50 with conformation at $$$$ the stock can run to
$$$$ then $$$$.
Look for a short trigger at $10.90 with conformation at $10.85 the stock can
slide to see $10.76, $10.65, $10.54 then $$$$ and $$$$
(For more LIVE blow by blow commentary and numbers on this stock and others,
with Admins coaching you through trades click and join the -> (
platinum forum )~{support what you believe in at MOM}. Lets sum up the CC,
In what is usually the weakest quarter of the year, Oracle surprised all but 5
of its 35 analysts by beating by $0.01 a share, due to better-than-expected
database and new software license growth. CFO Harry You said business is decent,
the economy is not worsening dramatically, and the co still sees "real growth"
ahead. Mgt noted small steady improvement relative to trend, with the end of the
qtr having more momentum than in June; co said low-end offerings gained share,
Linux gained momentum, and new software license revs were at their highest level
in past 10 qtrs. Currency bolstered results, as 7% revs growth had 4 points of
forex impact. At constant currency, software license revs were up 3%, license
updates up 10%; database up 14; RAC options up 60%. Apps business was much
weaker than expected, however, down 36%, or down 11% when taking out year-ago
large Russian deal. Guidance going forward of $0.13 EPS (Q2 consensus is $0.13)
and revs up in range of 3%-7%, new software license revs in range of minus-2 to
positive-8%, has about 1% forex benefit. ORCL expects 40%-plus margins for full
fiscal year, moderate revenue growth, continued economic improvement. Co adds it
expects apps growth starting again in Q2, due to deals that spilled over from
Q1. Co says it will continue to purchase stock well in excess of stock or option
grants, and noted buying stock at 7% FCF yield is a good use of shareholders'
cash
Keep in mind today, Wednesday the 15th– At 8:30 ET,
The NY Empire State numbers we be posted. Consensus are 18.0.
At 9 :45 EST
Industrial Production numbers we be posted. Market moving hhhhhhhheconomic
report. Consensus are 0.4% (Industrial Production), 77.4% (Capacity
Utilization).
Industrial Production is improving as order demand and inventory rebuilding
improve.
Globex futures have been trending to the
upside
across the board from 1:00 am ET.
ORCL:
(http://www.oracle.com)
Oracle Corporation is an enterprise software company that develops,
manufactures, market, distributes and services database software and
infrastructure software, including application server, collaborative software
and development tools that help its customers manage and grow their businesses
and operations. The Company also offers a suite of business applications
software. It is organized into two businesses, which are further organized into
five operating segments. The software business consists of two operating
segments: new software licenses and software license and product support.
Oracle's services business consists of three operating segments: consulting,
advanced product services and education.
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