COD Archive:

 

Chart of the Day for WEDNESDAY  03-31-04

MRVL  (www.marvell.com )  Marvell Technology Group Ltd. is a global semiconductor provider of broadband communications and storage solutions. The Company's product portfolio consists of switching, transceiver, wireless, PC (personal computer) connectivity, gateways, communications controller and storage solutions that power the entire communications infrastructure, including enterprise, metro, home and storage networking. Its core technologies were initially focused on the storage market, where it provided products to disk drive manufacturers such as Fujitsu, Hitachi, Samsung, Seagate and Toshiba. The Company subsequently applied its technology to the high-speed (broadband) communications market, where it provides physical layer transceivers to manufacturers of high-speed networking equipment, including Cisco, 3Com Corporation, Foundry Networks, Dell Computer, Intel and NETGEAR.  For the fiscal year ended 1/31/04, revenues rose 62% to $819.8 million. Net income totaled $45.5 million vs. a loss of $72.2 million. Results reflect increased Gigabit Ethernet product shipments and the absence of a consolidation charge.


 MRVL, unlike the general market indexes, moved with conviction as volume came in and price surged.  Note the steepness of the Gann angles drawn on the Gann frame chart, which has a 39.58-46.30 range on the 16 frame, and price close 5% off yearly highs.  Even the 64 frame has a 35.45-46.34 range (see notes about the Darvas box analogy in Swing Reports under Swing List review section).  The speed of ascent is dramatic and more than twice as fast as the pull back, shattering the myth that stocks have to drop faster than they go up.  Look for +1/8 target longer term of 47.66, and shorter term the 7/8 at 46.09 (about a point away), and the 8/8 of 46.88.    Look for the 4/8 supportive area of 43.75, and the 5/8 area of 44.53.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


 Market comments.   The institutional money is still “afraid of commitment” as reflected in even lower volume on Tuesday.  That is why we try to focus on individual stocks (in the voice rooms) like MRVL or TASR that are just exploding with power and convulsive conviction!  Many analysts are attributing this lack of volume to terrorist fears and uncertainty over the economic reports coming out later in the week (ISM Manufacturing Index at 10:00 ET on Thursday and Employment situation report with the jobs data that keeps eluding the experts).  With the cost of health insurance going up all the time, will they ever start with the new hires?  But regarding the low vollume, you also have to look at the end of quarter reshuffling, and being just ahead of earnings season puts us in a bit of a "lull period" as we keep saying.  Anyway, the COMPX did close above 2000 even if it was on lower volume.  One of our Swing List stocks added last weekend moved up over 13 points in two days, but some that have been on the list for over a year like URBN and IMCL keep pumping thru yearly highs!  Even though some may think we have "insider information" - that is not likely considering how we have winner after winner in all time frames from short to long term!
 

 

Chart of the Day for TUESDAY  03-30-04

LGND  (www.ligand.com )  Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated discovers, develops and markets new drugs that address critical unmet medical needs of patients in the areas of cancer, pain, men's and women's health or hormone-related health issues, skin diseases, osteoporosis and metabolic, cardiovascular and inflammatory diseases. Ligand's drug discovery and development programs are based on proprietary gene transcription technology, primarily related to intracellular receptors and signal transducers and activators of transcription. The Company markets five products in the United States: AVINZA for the relief of chronic, moderate to severe pain; ONTAK for the treatment of patients with persistent or recurrent cutaneous T-cell lymphoma (CTCL); Targretin capsules and Targretin gel for the treatment of CTCL in patients who are refractory to at least one prior systemic therapy, and Panretin gel for the treatment of Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) in AIDS patients.  For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, revenues rose 46% to $141.1 million. Net loss before acct. change rose 9% to $35.5 million. Revenues benefited from higher product sales. Higher loss reflects the write-off of X-Ceptor purchase right.


 LGND had some positive cancer drug news that was presented at a cancer symposium, but the chart was already a “picture of strength” before this news-driven push.  For the month of March, price was bouncing between the 6/8 and 2/8 lines, and the last move down to the 2/8 (nailed that level, or 17.18) was a “spinning top” candle, followed by another one.  Big volume came in as price surged past the 6/8 resistance level (20.31), to a high of 20.85, and close for the day of 20.56.  Look for support at the 5/8 level (19.53), which is also the 45 degree line (brown line at end of red arrow).  Look for potential targets at 21.87 and 22.65, the 8/8 and +1/8 line.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


 Market comments.   The ES gapped up about 7 and then was up that much again by the end of the first hour.  Despite the hoopla, volume in the major indexes was lower than average, but higher than Friday.  Anyway, there were some leaders that showed continued strength, such as QCOM, RHAT (chart of the day from last week), CECO, and a few others we don’t want to mention because they are on the Swing List!  TRIN was incredibly bullish, below 0.3 some of the day.  Earnings season is expected to be strong, based on what we have seen already in the “upped guidance” department.  See last week’s market comments for the “early bird” buy/market timing signal using the SOX.

 

 

Chart of the Day for MONDAY  03-29-04
ADSK  (www.autodesk.com )  Autodesk, Inc. is a design software and digital content company serving customers involved in building design, civil engineering, manufacturing, utilities, telecommunications and media and entertainment. The Company provides integrated and interoperable design software, Internet services, wireless development platforms and point-of-location applications that serve more than five million users. Autodesk's software products are sold in over 160 countries, both directly to customers and through a network of resellers and distributors.  For the nine months ended 10/31/03, net revenues rose 4% to $656.3M. Net income totalled $62.7 million, up from $25.5 million. Revenues reflect increased upgrade and subscription sales. Earnings also reflect the absence of $18.6 million in restructuring costs.


 ADSK has relatively pathetic moves no matter how good their earnings news is, but the recent push without a gap could take it to the 32.30 target area (using the daily chart).  In late February 2004, they posted 48 cents, vs. 6 cents fourth-quarter earnings per share (GAAP) on a 51% revenue rise. Autodesk sees 12 cents to 17 cents first-quarter earnings per share on $240 million to $250 million in revenue, and 94 cents to $1.04 fiscal 2005 earnings per share. S&P and Piper Jaffray raised their estimates.   See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


 Market comments.   IT (information technology) spending is actually exceeding the “bubble” levels set in 2000 by a huge margin, which is pretty amazing when you think of all the hand-wringing about the economy we’ve been having.  That along with good economic reports coming out, indicate that the Nasdaq was “due for a correction” which fortunately ended (if that was indeed the end) with a bit of a “panic bang” earlier in the week, and the seeming “capitulation” was aided by terrorist fears.  By the end of the week there were several mega-breakouts in stocks like ASKJ and other net stocks on multiple buyout news involving YHOO and INSP.  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.

 

 

Chart of the Day for FRIDAY 03-26-04


 ONXX  (www.onyx-pharm.com )  Onyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is engaged in the discovery and development of novel cancer therapies utilizing two technology platforms, small molecules that inhibit the proteins involved in excess growth signaling, and therapeutic viruses that selectively replicate in cells with cancer-causing genetic mutations. The Company is developing a novel small molecule compound, BAY 43-9006, in collaboration with Bayer Pharmaceuticals Corporation. Utilizing its proprietary virus technology, the Company is developing ONYX-411, a second-generation product that targets cancers with abnormal function of the retinoblastoma tumor-suppressor gene, and is developing Armed Therapeutic Virus products.  For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, revenue fell from $2.7 million to $0. Net loss fell 2% to $45 million. Revenues reflect the termination of the collaboration with Warner-Lambert. Lower loss reflects decreased costs associated with the therapeutic virus program.


 Try not to let a minor detail like ~lousy fundamentals~ distract you from a great trade.  This was exactly what we did in the Paltalk voice rooms, and the trades were called out all day by MarketMaster. The stock was up almost 4 points, and we love these kind of trading stocks.  RHAT did not see any red today (chart of the day a couple of days ago) after a gap reversal pattern (we played the gap after-hours when earnings were announced) it reversed and even broke closing highs on 16.4 million shares.  Thursday was a "trend day" which typically only happens once or twice a month.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


 Market comments.   Miracles do happen!  Suddenly the world is no longer coming to an end (for now at least).  ~When it rains, it pours~ and the bad news (geopolitical) and negative tone (bear ugly TRIN readings over and over again) created a bullish inverted head and shoulders on the hourly ES chart (S&P 500 Emini futures).  The Nasdaq Composite was up over 3%, and closed at the high of the day (we said to watch for potential bullishness in tech stocks re: the bullish reversal pattern yesterday in the SOX).  The NWX, GSO, and IIX were all up over 4%.  The SOX followed thru and was up 3.66%. The market had been extremely oversold, the pikers were panicking (as we stated on Monday), the put/call ratio was spiking, and the VIX exploded from about 14.00 to over 23.50 in less than 2 weeks.   See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.

 

 

Chart of the Day for THURSDAY  03-25-04
IGT  (www.igtonline.com )  International Game Technology is engaged in the design, development, manufacturing, distribution and sales of computerized gaming machines and systems products in all jurisdictions where gaming is legal. The Company operates in two lines of business, Product Sales and Proprietary Gaming. Product Sales encompasses the design, development, manufacturing, marketing, distribution and sales of computerized gaming products and systems. Revenues in this segment are generated from the sale of gaming machines, systems, parts, conversion kits, content fees, equipment and services.  For the 14 weeks ended 1/03/04, revenues rose 24% to $608.1 million vs. 13 weeks in the prior year. Net income from continuing operations increased 38% to $116.7 million. Revenues reflect the inclusion of casino operations from the integration of Anchor Gaming. Net income also reflects a decrease in provision for bad debts.


 IGT continues to have very bullish news, and we have featured this one last year in the Chart of the Day.  Looking at the monthly chart, you can see the breakout in the summer of 2000 from 7.00 to its present price of 44.17 (+2.71 on Wednesday). However, many analysts are looking for the most bullish cycle in 5 years with the opening up of Pennsylvania and California.  There was very bullish price and volume a month ago, and again on Tuesday and Wednesday this week (we were alerting this and other ~gaming~ (nice euphemism) stocks like STN and PENN in the voice room in the morning.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


 Market comments.   More vacillating and meandering, but the SOX shows signs of promise for a bounce, but it has faked out traders over and over for the past couple of months.  Also, tech stocks did outperfrom the so-called blue chips.  The broker/dealer index (XBD) broke down again, so apparently they do not care how good GS (Goldman Sachs) earnings were.  The bank index (BKX) also broke down, but there was somewhat of a hammer on the daily candle stick chart.  We watch these two indexes, because the financial stocks make up the largest component of the SPX, which spearheads the financial markets.  In fact, after a gap up on Tuesday with good earnings, it immediately proceeded to continue the powerful downtrend (on the daily chart).   See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.

 

 

Chart of the Day for WEDNESDAY  03-24-04


 RHAT  (www.redhat.com )  Red Hat, Inc. is engaged in providing an enterprise-operating platform based on open source technology for the information technology infrastructure of the Global 2000. The Company applies its technology to create its enterprise operating platform, Red Hat Enterprise Linux, and related layered infrastructure technology solutions, based on open source technology.   Red Hat said Tuesday (after-hours 3/23/04) it posted fiscal fourth-quarter net income of $5 million, or 3 cents a share, for the period ended Feb. 29.That compares with the prior year's fourth-quarter loss of $273,000, which was break-even on a per-share basis. Red Hat said its fourth-quarter revenue rose to $37 million from $25.9 million. The Raleigh-based company's top line was bolstered by subscription revenue, which jumped 79 percent to $25.9 million as the company added 87,000 new Linux subscriptions.  Red Hat's earnings were in line with its Dec. 19 projection and Thomson First Call's average analyst estimate. The company's revenue topped its own forecast of $36.2 million to $36.7 million.


RHAT reported stellar earnings last quarter and this quarter (Tuesday night).  If a stock goes up after earnings, that is good.  If it goes down after earnings, that is bad.  If that sounds simplistic, then it might surprise you to know how ridiculously complicated traders try to make things.  We’ve been holding many positions in the Swing List for 4 quarters or more, which means we have held over earnings, and the stocks have gone up, many over 200%.  Kind of difficult to have long term capital gains without holding over earnings, not just once, but 4 times in a row!  We like playing important stocks like RHAT over earnings, especially when a stock like this is expected to meet or beat earnings estimates.  RHAT traded above 21.00 after-hours, from its 19.40 close. See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


 Market comments.   The market just waffled and meandered back and forth, then the SPX took a dirty one, dropping over 10 points mostly in the last half hour. Early enthusiasm was short lived, and late day selling was intense, not usually a good sign.   The Nasdaq and SPX both had rally-backs to Fib resistance levels, then on the 5 min. chart you can see how they both dropped down to a slightly up-sloping trend line, so Wednesday should be interesting.  Traders are making all kinds of assumptions about how the market has to bounce because TRIN has been at extraordinarily high levels last week and this week, and then the advancers versus decliners on Monday indicated a supposedly “capitulation, washout” day.  But just remember that news changes everything, and this seems to be the time for bad geopolitical news. If the market does go up (esp. the SOX) look for substantial upside potential in SMSC, which closed at 24.66 on Tuesday. See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.

 

 

Chart of the Day for TUESDAY  03-23-04


 CALM  (www.calmainefoods.com ) Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. is primarily engaged in the production, cleaning, grading and packaging of fresh shell eggs for sale to shell egg retailers. The Company had sales of approximately 571 million dozen shell eggs during the fiscal year ended May 31, 2003 (fiscal 2003). It primarily markets shell eggs in the southwestern, southeastern, mid-western and mid-Atlantic regions of the United States. Shell eggs are sold directly by the Company primarily to national and regional supermarket chains. Cal-Maine also produces specialty eggs such as Eggo land's Best and Farmhouse eggs and operates a dairy facility.  For the 26 weeks ended 11/29/03, net sales increased 49% to $264.3M. Net income totaled $25.4 million, up from $297 thousand. Revenues reflect an increase in the amount of total eggs sold and increased egg selling prices. Higher income also reflects improved gross margins and decreased interest expense.


 CALM has lived up to its name by basing nicely for the past 3 months after peaking out last December, and then consolidating which let the 50 day m.a. catch up with price.  On Monday price broke above the Parabolic SAR, which coincided with OBV and RSI crossing their respective trend lines (see chart).  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


 Market comments.   We were able to squeeze another 3 points out of our Chart of the Day, NVEC, which went up 9 points in one hour on Friday, then up another three on Monday.  Some were wondering why we were going on about geopolitics here and in the Swing Report for the past 5+ weeks.  Once the market started to ~trade on terror~  you are looking at things ~after the fact.~  The killing of Hammas founder in Gaza city stirred up a hornet’s nest, but this was on top of all the things we have been enumerating.  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.
 

 

 

Chart of the Day for MONDAY  03-22-04

NVEC  (http://www.nve.com/) NVE Corporation develops and sells devices using spintronics, a technology it helped pioneer, which utilizes electron spin rather than electron charge to acquire, store and transmit information. The Company's products include magnetic sensors to acquire ultra-precise data, such as the position of a robot arm, and couplers to transmit data between electronic systems at very high speed. It is also a licensor of spintronics/magnetic random access memory technology (MRAM), which has the potential to revolutionize electronic memory.  For the nine months ended 12/31/03, revenues rose 29% to $8.8 million. Net income totaled $1.3M, up from $487 thousand. Results reflect increased product sales and lower research and development costs.


NVEC went up about 9 point in the last hour of trade on Friday 3-19-03. As we wrote for the Wednesday 3-17-04 Chart of the Day, NVEC had steady buying on no news, and we stressed that we like buying on no news, because we don’t like competing with other, and the professional buying typically comes before the news anyway. The news concerns the use of MRAM, which is the intellectual property of NVEC, by Cypress Semi and Motorola.  MRAM is supposedly the ~holy grail~ of memory technology that uses nanotechnology. It has the potential to combine the speed of SRAM, the density of DRAM, and the non-volatility of flash.  Reread our comments from last week’s COD (Wednesday).  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


 Market comments.   Our Chart of the Day, NVEC, went up 9 points in one hour on Friday.  All goes to show, even when the market is weird, it’s still a stock picker’s market!  In fact, look at the price action in the Charts of Day for Wednesday and Friday, which were NVEC and SLAB respectively.  NVEC went up almost 9 points in the last hour of trade Friday and SLAB went down 2.53 points or 4.69% for the day.  So let’s get this straight, it was a nasty, bearish day, and the bearish Chart of the Day went down nicely (4.69%), but the best move was a bullish Chart of the Day, by a factor of 3 to 1 (15% vs. less than 5%, and 6.30 points net – 9 in the last hour – vs. a paltry 2.53 points.  Many times in the Paltalk rooms, MarketMaster has been finding long plays all over the place when the market was bear ugly.   See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.
 

 

 

Chart of the Day for FRIDAY  03-19-04


SLAB  (http://www.silabs.com/) Silicon Laboratories Inc. designs and develops proprietary, analog-intensive, mixed-signal integrated circuits (ICs) for use in a range of applications. The Company groups its products into two categories: mobile handset products and broad-based, mixed-signal products. Its mobile handset products include the Aero transceivers and radio frequency (RF) synthesizers. Its broad-based, mixed-signal products include silicon Direct Access Arrangement, ISOmodem, ProSLIC (subscriber line interface circuits), digital subscriber line analog front end, clock chips, SiPHY, optical transceivers and clock and data recovery ICs, general purpose RF Synthesizers for non-handset applications, as well as the Cygnal eight-bit microcontroller family of products.   For the fiscal year ended 1/03/04, revenues rose 79% to $325.3M. Net income totaled $44.7 million, up from $20.7 million. Results reflect significant growth in sales of the Company's wireless products. Net income also reflects improved margins due to lower amortization of deferred stock compensation.


SLAB looks like it could be laid out on a cold slab soon if it dumps thru the blue trend line (see chart).  It is still in an overall up trend, but momentum has been waning and there have been willing sellers with every major rally over the past month (see the shooting stars, some of which are labeled on the chart).   See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


Market comments.  Just yesterday we wrote about ~mopping up~ terrorists, and changing their outcomes before they change the outcomes of any further election results in Europe or elsewhere.  Then the news comes out about a so-called high level al-Qaida target ~surrounded~ near the Afghan-Pakistani border.  Making such an announcement seems odd unless they had a bunch of dead al-Qaida ~surrounded~ and we shall find out more tomorrow.  Anyway, it was good for a massive and fast squeeze to the upside to the tune of 12 or more ES points.  We said in the Paltalk room (before the al-Qaida news was released) to watch the 1113.25 ~fight zone~ again (last time it was from below, this time from above).      See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.

 

 

 

Chart of the Day for THURSDAY  03-18-04


XMSR  (http://www.xmradio.com/) XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. is a nationwide provider of audio entertainment and information programming for reception by vehicle, home and portable radios. The Company's digital audio XM Radio service offers 100 channels of music, news, talk, sports and children's programming for a monthly subscription price of $9.99. XM also offers one premium channel. The Company has original music and talk channels created by its in-house programming unit, as well as channels created by well-known providers of brand-name programming, including MTV, VH1, ESPN Radio, Radio Disney, CNN, CNBC, Discovery, Fox News, E!, NASCAR, Radio One, Clear Channel, The Weather Channel and Hispanic Broadcasting Corporation.  For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, revenue totaled $91.8 million, up from $20.2 million. Net loss applicable to Common rose 17% to $604.9 million. Results reflect higher subscription revenue, offset by increased marketing costs.


XMSR broke out of the consolidation ellipse (highlighted in yellow and annotated on the chart)  on 2/25/04 and two trading days later was breaking through the “pinched” Bollinger Band (BB) as it was also breaking above the 50 day m.a.  There seems to be a major buy signal on this stock just about every quarter, and for some reason we always spot it (difficult to miss re: the heavy volume that usually accompanies it.  One of our partners says he always seems to look at the clock when it is 9:11 (he lives in NYC).  Another partner always seems to be looking when XMSR gives a buy signal!  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


Market comments.  Solid buying across the board (big board, small board, you name it), however we’re still looking for institutional involvement.  Either they’re going to be late to the party, or the pikers are pushing things up only to be disappointed yet again. We need to see on of the major indexes gain 2% or more (preferably the COMPX) on heavier volume on Friday or early next week (as a follow-through day).  Oil is now above $38.  The CPI is in control (as long as you do no fill your tank or eat). The daily ES chart (S&P Emini futures) is a sight to behold with three side by side candle tails (wicks) down thru the 1/8 line of 1101.56 (which we mentioned yesterday), and ~voila~ a day later it tags an almost 25 point gain.  To touch on the Madrid bombings again, if the terrorists are now in the business of changing election outcomes as they did in Spain, we have 8 months (in the U.S.) to mop up a few more terrorists and change their outcomes first.  Supposedly France is the next target, and they have a burgeoning Arabic population (easy immigration from their past colonial ties with North African countries).  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.

 

 

 

Chart of the Day for WEDNESDAY  03-17-04


NVEC   (http://www.nve.com/) NVE Corporation develops and sells devices using spintronics, a technology it helped pioneer, which utilizes electron spin rather than electron charge to acquire, store and transmit information. The Company's products include magnetic sensors to acquire ultra-precise data, such as the position of a robot arm, and couplers to transmit data between electronic systems at very high speed. It is also a licensor of spintronics/magnetic random access memory technology (MRAM), which has the potential to revolutionize electronic memory.  For the nine months ended 12/31/03, revenues rose 29% to $8.8 million. Net income totaled $1.3M, up from $487 thousand. Results reflect increased product sales and lower research and development costs.


NVEC had steady buying on no apparent news.  Indeed, there does not seem to have been any news for about 2 months.  Note the wedge breakout that coincided with trend line breaks of RSI, OBV, and StochRSI.  There was a triple bottom (of sorts) near the upsloping 200 day m.a., often considered one of the best buy points possible for longer term to intermediate term trades.  Price came all the way down from almost 70 to a low on Monday of 36.36, so if volatility is what you are after, this is the stock for you.  Very decent earnings and revenue growth.   See this “ Swing Trading ” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


Market comments.  The FOMC announcement & policy statement provided quite a bit of fast action for the fast money crowd, which is not unusual, but there was a fairly solid 10 point or better move up off (above) the important SPX 1101.56 Gann line support area.  The FOMC policy statement was basically a repeat of the one from the prior month.  Sometimes when the ~expected~ happens, the market loves to do the unexpected, and the wide swings in the major indexes were ~baffling~ to most market observers.  Housing data from before the open showed a 4% slowdown, and is at the slowest pace since August 2003.      See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.

 

 

 

Chart of the Day for TUESDAY 03-16-04


ICOS   (http://www.icos.com/) ICOS Corporation is a product-driven company that has expertise in both protein-based and small molecule therapeutics. The Company combines its capabilities in molecular, cellular and structural biology, high-throughput drug screening, medicinal chemistry and gene expression profiling to develop products expected to have significant commercial potential. In November 2002, Lilly ICOS LLC, a joint venture the Company established with Eli Lilly and Company, received approval from the European Commission to market Cialis for the treatment of erectile dysfunction. The Company is also developing several product candidates targeting a variety of serious diseases and medical conditions. These include IC747 for the treatment of psoriasis, RTXTM (resiniferatoxin) for the treatment of interstitial cystitis, IC14 for the treatment of sepsis resulting from community acquired pneumonia (CAP) and IC485 for the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.  For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, revenues decreased 19% to $75.1 million. Net loss decreased 22% to $125.5 million. Revenues reflect a decrease in collaboration revenue from affiliates. Net loss reflects the inclusion of a $10 million gain on the sale of partnership interests. 


ICOS has been a real stink-bomb recently with bizarre rally-backs lasting 2 or 3 days, but the recent one only lasted one day – the old ~one day wonder~ routine.  On Monday it took a dirty one through the lower median line channel support line while RSI  turned south just when it was trying to get above the 50 line.  This one is certainly has heavy enough volume to play both ways, long and short.   Erratum:  ~CHKP….~    should have read ~SYMC…a possible break to new highs.~  We put in the wrong symbol.   See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


Market comments.  From ground zero to zero logic; terrorists and communists win big in Spain.  Apparently, Mr. Market doesn’t like either (referring to the election upset in that country).  The Arabs have a grudge match against Spain anyway, for being kicked out of there a few hundred years ago, and it seems to have led to a new role: ~terrorist consultants to lesser terrorists~ which in this case was the Basque (basket-case) separatists.  As we said in the Paltalk voice rooms, be very aware of the situation in Europe in the future, there are a lot more bone-heads there than previously thought, and they are playing into the hands of the terrorists big-time it appears.  The Nasdaq is finally now in a full-blown correction, being down more than 10%.  As we keep saying, institutional money has been selling rallies and selling sell-offs for over 6 weeks in the tech stock realm, so this should not be a mystery.  What is somewhat mysterious is how quickly the S&P small, mid, and large cap indexes went form hitting yearly and multi-year highs to turning into an ugly carnage just a week later, as if it knew what was going to happen about a day or two before the Madrid bombings.  Yet with all this mess, Swing List stock (long) #1 from last weekend was pounding to the upside.  The shorts on the list were doing well before this bloody mess, so we do not need any artificial help, but thanks anyway!    See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.
 

 

 

Chart of the Day for MONDAY  03-15-04



TEVA  (http://www.tevapharm.com/) Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. is a global pharmaceutical company producing drugs in all major treatment categories. Teva has utilized its production and research capabilities to establish a global pharmaceutical business focused on the growing demand for generic drugs and on the opportunities for proprietary branded products for specific niche categories. Teva's active pharmaceutical ingredients business provides both significant revenues and profits from sales to third-party generic manufacturers and strategic benefits to the Company's own pharmaceutical production through its delivery of significant raw materials.  For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, sales increased 30% to $3.28 billion. Net income rose 68% to $691 million. Revenues reflect increased North American pharmaceutial sales due to sales of new products. Net income also reflects a higher margin product mix and income from GlaxoSmithKline litigation settlement.

TEVA received an FDA approval for generic Augmentin ES-600. That  major news Friday after the close that seemed to get ~swept under the rug~ but it has an intrinsically interesting pattern on the Gann frame chart (see below) in its own right in that price came down 5/8 (not including the tail).  See how it reacts to the news on Monday, and if there is not too much of a gap, you may need to play it from 8:00 ET, but there is a lot of volume in this stock to play it both ways (long and short).  The growth rate way exceeds the P/E in TEVA, and the price tends to stay rather stupidly cheap, especially when you think of the nutty bozo stocks that ran up last week, like MAMA and BABY.  Look at the pattern of BBY for a possible reversal upside followthru, and CHKP for a possible breakout to new highs.  They are both very high volume stocks and relatively easy to play.    See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


Market comments.  The CRB index (a composite of all the main commodities) had 2 side by side ~doji~ candles on the weekly chart, which indicates a possible inflection point but at this point it is starting to outperform the SPX again. Gold prices fell precipitously, down 5.40 to 395.60. Apparently, traders are impressed with the rapid response of the Spanish authorities in hunting down terrorist suspects. Gold is basically trading like a currency right now, so when the U.S. Dollar ~catches a bid~ gold tends to take a dump. Gold now has two significant lower highs, and a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, and silver has a major bearish oscillator divergence. Consumer sentiment came in near expectations, which is possibly why the Euro went down below 1.22. Crude oil closed the week at 36.19, after exceeding our multi-month 37.00 target handily. The U.S. Senate made a move to cut oil prices. The 10 year note yields reached a low of 3.68%.  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.
 

 

 

Chart of the Day for FRIDAY  03-12-04


TROW  (www.troweprice.com) T. Rowe Price Group is a financial services holding company. The Company derives its consolidated revenues and net income primarily from investment advisory services that its subsidiaries provide to individual and institutional investors in the sponsored T. Rowe Price mutual funds and other investment portfolios. The Company operates its investment advisory business through its subsidiary companies, primarily T. Rowe Price Associates and T. Rowe Price International. Price's services include mutual funds, brokerage services, college planning, individual retirement accounts (IRAs), retirement and planning, banking services and quotes and research for individual investors, institutional investors, non-United States individual investors and financial intermediaries. In 2002, the Company's five largest funds were Equity Income, Mid-Cap Growth, Prime Reserve, Blue Chip Growth and International Stock (the Price funds).  For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, revenues increased 8% to $998.9 million. Net income rose 17% to $227.5 million. Results reflect higher advisory fees due to higher average fund assets under management, lower advertising expenses and higher other investment income. 


TROW has been somewhat of a leading stock (recently) in the financial sector (perennially strong) that had a recent spate of shooting stars and then a Fib retracement to a possible support area (see chart).  The shooting stars also coincided with multiple bearish oscillator divergences. The long term trend is still very strong as evidenced by the 200 day m.a.  Year over year quarterly EPS growth has started to accelerate over the past two quarters, and they are due to report earnings in a couple of weeks.  If you look at the monthly chart, you’ll see that this has been a super sleepy stock, going sideways for literally 5 years (1998-2003), but this year it seems to have ~woken up~ (do you think it might have something to do with earnings? – just a wild guess!)    See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


Market comments.  As we stated in the Swing Report about a month ago, bad things tend to happen when a major index (Nasdog) is in a sell signal.  The Nasdaq led us to the upside in 2003, but in 2004 it lead the way to the downside, and then a terrorist event happens, which is exactly what we “predicted” (2/14/04: “Event risks often happen (if they happen) after the major indexes give a sell signal (the last such time was 9/11).”   The bombing in Madrid was not exactly 9/11, but it was very unnerving, especially when traders can not figure out if it was linked to the Middle East (Middle Earth).  What is surprising is the way the S&P indexes (small, mid, and large) were hitting yearly and even 24 month highs, and then a few days later they look so incredibly ugly (which we also told you to watch out for in the Swing Report a month ago) stating that when growth stocks roll over and have UGLY technical patterns, it is just a matter of time before the rest of the market caves in. The Nasdaq (-9.7%) is almost within the technical definition of a correction (-10%).  As with other charts of the day, they can be played both ways, and we are still “ripe” for a short squeeze in the market generally.  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.

 

 

 

Chart of the Day for THURSDAY  03-11-04


SOHU   (www.sohu.com) Sohu.com Inc. operates an Internet portal in China consisting of sophisticated Chinese language Web navigational and search capabilities, 17 main content channels, Web-based communications, alumni club and community services and a platform for e-commerce, subscription and short messaging services. Each of its interest-specific main channels contains multi-level sub-channels that cover a comprehensive range of topics, including news, business, entertainment, sports and careers. The Company also offers free and paid Web-based e-mail.   For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, revenues totaled $80.4 million, up from $28.7 million. Net income totaled $26.4 million vs. a loss of $1 million. Results reflect higher E-subscription revenues due to increased demand for wireless value-added services.


SOHU is the weak sibling of the Chinese internet triplets, but NTES and SINA got the smack-down also on Wednesday, but they are still above the 200 day m.a.  See the annotated chart of SOHU for the breakdown areas using the basic median line methodology.  The purple was minor, and the blue major, but they were both ugly.  The black line and channel is pointing down and may contain the future price action.  OBV and RSI is an ugly mess, and the median line actually “shut out” any hope of bullishness when it “strayed” outside bounds of the up-sloping channel.  ADX reflects the recent trendlessness, but is starting to turn up indicating a possible new trend developing.    See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


Market comments.   Investors are now questioning (finally) the veracity and validity of the so-called economic smoke-and-mirrors, dog-and-pony show “recovery.”  There’s only so much you can do with fiscal stimulus and an imploding dollar and burgeoning debt-ridden growth.  They broadcast President Bush’s speech in Ohio on CNBC in which he talked about everything, seemingly.  The market went sideways as he railed against death taxes, but when he started talking about the stock market, that was when the market started taxing the longs by dying.  It was a slow death at first, but then it started to die with accelerating and astonishing rapidity.  Usually it’s Greenspan who puts an ugly on the market, but there was something about the record breaking trade deficit (reported at 8:30 ET) and then hearing Bush speak as if everything was A-OK in the OK Corral that just plaino spooked institutional money.  The bulls are hoping that earnings guidance season (coming soon) and earnings season will give the market a backbone. The Nasdaq has now corrected 8.8% and has had seven distribution days in six weeks.  But less than a week ago all the S&P indexes (small, mid, and large cap) were hitting yearly highs or better.  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.

 

 

 

Chart of the Day for WEDNESDAY  03-10-04

 
IDSA  (www.isa-inc.com) Industrial Services of America, Inc. is a management services company specializing in solid waste management, as well as ferrous, non-ferrous and fiber recycling. The management division of the Company is engaged in the business of commercial, retail and industrial waste management and waste handling. It also has an operating division engaged in equipment sales and leasing activities. The recycling division's major products include recycled steel, iron, copper, aluminum and brass. The fiber recycling consists mainly of high-grade papers and corrugated cardboard. Combining waste reduction, waste materials diversion and waste equipment technology, the Company creates waste programs tailored to each client's individual needs. The waste management services offered by the Company include locating and contracting with a hauling company at each participating location for its customers.  For the nine months ended 9/30/03, revenues rose 14% to $87.4 million. Net income rose 17% to $388 thousand. Revenues reflect increased volume of shipments and higher price of commodities. Earnings also reflect an increase in operating margin.


IDSA is a garbage stock!  But it’s been hauling more than waste recently, up over 1000%, mostly in February.  Watch the Fib support area drawn on the chart and the high of the day Tuesday for a break to the upside.  No one really seemed to know why this was going up so much, just hot money chasing a stock with less than 1 million in the float.  It has been profitable for several quarters with erratically accelerating growth, but that hardly justifies the frenzied fray.   See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


Market comments.  As we stated in the Swing Report several times over the last couple of months, all the jokers who were waiting for the economy to improve before getting into the market missed a cool 70% or better move in the Nasdaq.  The hot money can’t stop from falling over itself, and now it can not get out of tech stocks fast enough.  Be careful though, because they seem to love getting on the wrong side of the market and procrastinate their shorting, which causes an almighty reversal in the SOX and other tech related indexes. The SOX had a 5/8 move down on the daily chart (from the last significant high) using 64 frame with a hammer candle thru the 484.38 Gann line (3/8, from the 8/8) and was actually positive for the day, so watch to see if there is follow through on Wednesday and beyond.  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.
 

 

 

Chart of the Day for TUESDAY  03-09-04

 
ALDN  (www.ealaddin.com) Aladdin Knowledge Systems Ltd. is engaged in software commerce and Internet security. The Company operates as a partner for software developers and Internet security professionals. Aladdin's products include the USB-based eToken device for user authentication and e-commerce security; the eSafe line of content security solutions that protect PCs and networks against malicious, inappropriate and nonproductive Internet-borne content; HASP, the hardware-based software security system that protects the revenues of developers, and Privilege, a software licensing and distribution platform. The Company has offices in eight international locations and a global network of resellers and distributors through which it supports customers in over 100 countries.  For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, revenues rose 11% to $54.7 million. Net income totaled $2.7 million, vs. a loss of $6.6 million. Revenues reflect higher Software Digital Rights Management product sales. Net income also reflects improved gross profit margins and lower R&D expenses.


ALDN broke resistance on a massive volume surge on Monday on no news, which is what we like for the longer term trades.  For intraday scalp trades, we love news, we play the news, we embrace the news, but you better make sure you’re nimble and “fleet of foot” so you can sell to the “greater fools” so that you’re not left “holding the bag.”  Watch ADX over the next few days and weeks for strength of trend, but just remember, the 200 day m.a. is at 8.04 and current price is at 18.00.   See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


Market comments.  This bears repeating, so here goes, and hear this:  we are in the “lull” period of the quarter.  The second half of the quarter is between earnings season. And we are in the middle part of the second half of the quarter, which puts us in the middle of the middle of nowhere.  Nevertheless, SWIR hit all three long targets in the first 20 minutes of trade on Monday (given in the free weekly newsletter) even though they are supposedly selling tech stocks.  Earnings “drive” the market, so do economic reports.  What started off with innocuous market action turned into a seeming “rout.”  The SOX is at the -2/8 Gann level, but remember that when it reverses, it does so with a vengeance, so do not get on the wrong side of things if and when that happens.  We had two short in the Swing List added last weekend that had beautiful gains of +10% and +5%, and one was, fortuitously, a chip stock!  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.

 

 

Chart of the Day for MONDAY  03-08-04


SWIR  (www.sierrawireless.com) Sierra Wireless, Inc. is engaged in the wireless communications industry. The Company is a provider of wireless data communications equipment supplying wireless data modems, original equipment manufacturer (OEM) modules and other devices, as well as software that enables the modems, modules and devices to work with computers and other equipment. The Company's product line of wireless data modems includes personal computer (PC) cards, vehicle-mounted modems and OEM modules that are built into computers and other devices. Many of its products support more than one communications protocol. Its software products allow its modems and devices to work with personal and hand-held computers and other devices.  For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, revenues rose 32% to $101.7 million. Net income totaled $2.3M vs. a loss of $41.7 million. Revenues reflect higher sales of Aircard products. Net income also reflects the absence of restructuring costs.


SWIR was another example of a sleeping giant and you need to get on his back when asleep, not when waking up, and especially not when he is fully awake, unless you are very aggressive and very nimble!  The percentage returns we got out of this stock on our Swing List may have been gigantic, but this is still a small cap (it was MUCH smaller when we first added it!)  It is one of those stocks that wants real bad to be a mid cap, and we have had quite a few of those.  Peter Lynch said he was happy with a couple of big winners a decade – we have had several every quarter, and some like IMCL (basis 14.05) and OVTI (basis 9.00) are still on the Swing List with long term capital gains (> than one year hold time) in the offing, and we are continuing to track many like these.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


Market comments.  Swing report readers will take note of some huge moves that are likely to take place in the coming week, and further out.  For a preview, see the Chart of the Day for Tuesday 2-24-04 in the archives.  We are still in the “throes” of early stage economic recovery AND the victims of our own success in terms of productivity gains, and these are both hampering the employment situation reports.  A pickup in these numbers may not be apparent until next quarter or even the quarter after that (see Market Comments last week for more insight into this boring subject, especially regarding GDP growth). One index in particular has a “pre-explosive” pattern and setup (see this weekend’s Swing Report), so stay alert over the next few weeks, but DO NOT become complacent, EVER.  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.

 

 

Chart of the Day for FRIDAY  03-05-04


NIHD  (www.nextelinternational.com) NII Holdings, Inc. provides digital wireless communication services targeted at meeting the needs of business customers through four operating companies located in selected Latin American markets. The Company was formerly known as Nextel International, Inc. Its principal operations are in major business centers and related transportation corridors of Mexico, Brazil, Peru and Argentina. It also provides analog specialized mobile radio services through two operating companies in Chile. In May 2002, NII filed for reorganization under Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code in Delaware. None of its foreign subsidiaries have filed for Chapter 11 reorganization, and its foreign subsidiaries will continue operating in the ordinary course of business during the Chapter 11 process. In November 2002, NII emerged from bankruptcy proceedings.  For the nine months ended 9/30/03, operating revenues rose 18% to $675.6 million. Net income from continuing operations totaled $88.9 million vs. a loss of $428.4 million. Results reflect an increased number of digital handsets in service and lower interest expense and reorganization items.


NIHD had a beautiful wedge setup in the low 70’s  at the end of December 2003 and then it proceeded to go directly to 100 in 7 trading days, with not a single down day.  It then started wedging again with a break out of that pattern on a big volume surge, and for the past 4 trading days after that it formed a high tight flag.  This is one of the strongest stocks in the strongest industry group.  We do not really follow or count commodity based stocks like gold and oil, unless gold were to break $450 and oil $40, but even then, do you really think you can find the next MSFT or AMGN in gold or oil? And we sure don’t know what goes on in the minds of gold bugs.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


Market comments.  Good earnings and good economic reports are apparently priced in to the market, job growth and employment rate is what the market cares about now.  As we said earlier in the week, the employment component of the ISM Manufacturing survey is predictive of a good number in an otherwise erratic and inconsistent pattern. While many bemoan the lack of volume in every recent advance in the Nasdaq, it is also important to remember the huge gains of 70% or more that this tech-rich index made in 2003 while all the nay-sayers who were waiting for good economic reports to come out before believing in the rally (sorry Charlie, by that time you missed the move) and the Elliott Wave jokers who got their biggest sell signal ever in March 2003.  We are supposedly in a lose/lose situation with regard to the jobs report on Friday morning (if strong they worry about interest rate hikes, if weak they worry about the economy).  Nevertheless, we are looking for range expansion in a rather explosive manner if the SPX can move strongly above the major 8/8 Gann line of 1156.25.  As well, they can’t keep having it both ways; a strong GDP eventually has to give way to job growth – something has to give…   See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.
 

 

Chart of the Day for THURSDAY  03-04-04


NET  (www.nai.com) Networks Associates, Inc. is a supplier of computer security solutions designed to prevent intrusions on networks and protect computer systems from the next generation of blended attacks and threats. NET offers two families of products, McAfee System Protection Solutions and McAfee Network Protection Solutions. McAfee System Protection Solutions deliver anti-virus and security products and services designed to protect systems such as desktops and servers. McAfee System Protection Solutions also included the Company's Magic Service Desk family of products designed to offer management and visibility of desktop and server systems. McAfee Network Protection Solutions offer products designed to maximize the performance and security of networks, including Sniffer Technologies network analysis and availability technologies, network intrusion prevention with McAfee IntruShield and InfiniStream Security Forensics. In February 2004, the Company sold its Magic Solutions business.  For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, revenues fell 11% to $932.5 million. Net income before accounting change decreased 56% to $56.2 million. Results reflect the continued reductions of corporate capital spending, increased research and development expenses and higher restructuring charges. 


NET has terrible “fundamentals” so it should continue to rise in price, just like a good lump of dough.  Hopefully you can NET some gains, and make some bread out of this dawg. Earnings are only down 56% and its breaking new closing highs, so perhaps if earnings were down 80% or more, it would be a 100.00 stock by now.  And if it were a nutty dot.com it would be even higher, perhaps 200.00.   With all the lip-service they are now paying to so-called “valuation” – seems ironic indeed.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


Market comments.  We noted the SPX low of the day in real time in the voice room (1144 ES), using the Monty Python “Spot the Loonie” analogy (Spot the Looser in this case, trying to short below 1144).  The commentators used all the usual catch phrases like subdued and lackluster, which makes catching the low of the day all the more discrete. We are looking for range expansion above the “high note” octave of 1156.25 which has been tested multiple times.  They say money continues to rotate out of tech, but we have been inundated with bullish stocks to trade in the voice room, like MAMA which is apparently some kind of French Canadian nutty dot.com stock with a float of 6.3 million shares and miniscule earnings that are shrinking, not growing.  “Quebec libre” – whatever!  MarketMaster alerted this one from 4.00 after-hours Monday, and voilia! – two days later its trading over 15.50, we kept alerting and trading it like crazy (and we use that word advisedly!)  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.
 

 

Chart of the Day for WEDNESDAY  03-03-04


JUPM (www.jupitermedia.com) Jupitermedia Corporation is a provider of global real-time news, information, research and media resources for information technology (IT), Internet industry and graphics professionals. Jupiterweb, the online division of Jupitermedia, operates five distinct online networks: internet.com and EarthWeb.com for IT professionals; DevX.com for developers; ClickZ.com for interactive marketers, and ArtToday.com for graphics professionals. Jupiterweb properties include more than 150 Websites and nearly 150 e-mail newsletters that are viewed by over 20 million users and generate over 275 million page views monthly. Jupitermedia also includes Jupiter Research, an international research advisory organization specializing in business and technology market research in 18 business areas and 14 vertical markets. In addition, Jupiter Events produces offline conferences and trade shows focused on IT and business-specific topics, including Wi-Fi Planet, Search Engine Strategies and Internet Planet.  For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, revenues rose 15% to $47 million. Net income totaled $1.4 million vs. a loss of $511 thousand. Revenues reflect the acquisitions of Jupiter Research and ArtToday. Net income also reflects lower depreciation expenses.


JUPM broke out of a high bull flag pattern on Wednesday, and with a float of 8.3 million it did not take much volume to do it.  In fact average volume is less than 200k but over the past month we have seen fairly consistent volume near 400k per day.  There was a two month Darvas box (of sorts) that it broke out of when it went above 6, and now it is breaking above 10, a former resistance area, just a month after it surpassed 6.00.   OBV is huge, but caught up with its 20 day m.a. somewhat.  RSI has been very strong, hardly having a chance to drop below 70 for the past 3 weeks.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


Market comments.  As we talked about in the voice room, the SPX hit a “high note” in the harmonic spectrum (octave) on the 60 minute chart and that was the 8/8 Gann line of 1156.25 area.  It had gone up 9/8 from the last significant low in less than two trading days, so it had to come back in anyway.  It also went up on low volume, and went down on higher volume.  So at best we’re churning at the top, but more realistically the pro’s (institutional money) are selling every significant rally.  For the Nasdaq, that makes 6 distribution days in five weeks.  They are expecting a strong employment report on Friday as reflected by a move up in the dollar.  The strong ISM manufacturing report, with the employment component hitting a 17 year high, also gives you another reason to believe that Friday's data will come in strong.  So they went from worrying about job growth to worrying about job growth being so strong that the Fed will raise rates sooner than later, or that is the story (spin) du jour anyway.  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.
 

 

Chart of the Day for TUESDAY  03-02-04


LEXR (www.lexarmedia.com) Lexar Media, Inc. designs, develops and markets high-performance flash cards and connectivity products marketed as "digital film" to the digital photography market, as well as to other markets utilizing portable digital storage media for the capture and retrieval of digital content. The Company's digital film products enable customers to capture digital images and download them to a personal computer (PC) for editing, distributing and printing. Lexar Media offers flash cards in the five primary media formats used by digital cameras and other electronic devices: CompactFlash, Memory Stick, SmartMedia, Secure Digital Card and MultiMedia Card.  For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, revenues totaled $412.3M, up from $174 million. Net income totaled $39.9 million up from $4 million.  Results reflect higher product sales and a significantly lower effective income tax rate.


LEXR has had no news in a couple of weeks (which we like) and it tends to move with SNDK which has been having a bullish push recently.  As you can see from the info above, this is a company that is on fire with huge sales and earnngs growth, and there is also the rumor of a deal with Intel.  See if it can break the trend line (marked on the chart) and out of the consolidation ellipse with double bottom and bullish divergences.  The double bottom was at the 1/8 bounce area using a 32 frame chart, and the 12.50 Gann level is very powerful for a 0/8 line.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


Market comments.  Reread our comments a week ago (Tuesday) re: the Gann frame bounce in the SPX which we emphasized before the move.  Also, Swing Report readers were alerted to watch for strength in the ISM Manufacturing number, which we expected to come in very strong (because of the Philly Fed survey and New York Fed recently) and to watch for shorts getting hurt.  Also, six straight weeks of losses in the tech sector gave us some nice Gann frame bounces in the SOX as we emphasized (before the move) last week.  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.

 

 

Chart of the Day for MONDAY  03-01-04

 
CEPH (www.cephalon.com) Cephalon, Inc. is an international biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the discovery, development and marketing of products to treat sleep disorders, neurological and psychiatric disorders, cancer and pain. In addition to conducting an active research and development program, the Company markets three products in the United States and a number of products in various countries throughout Europe. Its three biggest products in terms of product sales, Provigil, Actiq and Gabitril (tiagabine hydrochloride), comprised approximately 80% of the Company's total worldwide net product sales for the year ended December 31, 2002. Outside the United States, the Company's commercial activities are concentrated primarily in France, the United Kingdom and Germany.  For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, revenues rose 41% to $714.8 million. Net income before accounting change fell 52% to $83.9 million. Revenues reflect the acquisition of Lafon and increased prescriptions. Higher income also reflects improved gross margins and a decrease in interest expenses.



CEPH had a bullish breakout above the 57.00 resistance, but the bearish divergences mean that if it “wants” to go up, it’s got a “tough road to hoe.”   See if it can hold above the blue trend line drawn on the price chart and on RSI.  There is a massive volume surge with almost no price movement (see “churning” annotation) which is often an ominous sign.  Just remember that bearish do not necessarily work in bullish stocks or markets.   See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.



Market comments.  The S&P Emini futures (ES) went up 7 from the open (not including the 2 point gap up), down 11, up 9, and down 6.  Nice mindless buying and selling, but it hit the target we gave on the chart of the day last Tuesday with a little bit of an overshoot.  We are at major resistance levels.  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.