COD Archive:

 

Chart of the Day for FRIDAY  02-27-04


 AVCI (www.avici.com) Avici Systems Inc. provides high-speed Internet infrastructure equipment that enables telecommunications companies and Internet service providers (ISPs), referred to as carriers, to transmit high volumes of information across their networks. The Company's high-performance routing solutions are designed and built to deliver the scalability, reliability, stability, flexibility, performance and interoperability that carriers need to support a wide range of applications while lowering total cost of building and operating their networks.  For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, net revenues rose 24% to $37 million. Net loss fell 43% to $37 million. Revenues reflect higher product volume. Lower loss also reflects improved gross profit margins, and decreased overhead costs. 


AVCI is losing money hand-over-fist, just not as fast as before, but they’re pumping it up as fast as they can!  So fast in fact, that they didn’t even have time to fill the gap between 10.00 and 12.50.  Then it ranged between 15.00 and 20.00 for almost 6 weeks, and then it plowed through 20.00 on huge volume of close to 2 million shares, or about 4 times normal.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.



 Market comments.  All the famous commentators are now talking about money flowing into tech stocks, the SOX going up, and the Nasdaq bouncing and going above and holding above 2000.  Read all about it, after the fact.  Well, if you want to see things emphasized before the fact, before the move, read the Chart of the Day comments for Tuesday.  We also emphasized the money flow into the Biotech sector (BTK) two months ago, and on Thursday it broke above major resistance to new closing highs.  The IIX (Internet Index) made a double bottom (see SOHU, which is an internet stock, Chart of the Day from earlier this week).  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.
 

 

 

Chart of the Day for THURSDAY 02-26-04


 SOHU (www.sohu.com) Sohu.com Inc. operates an Internet portal in China consisting of sophisticated Chinese language Web navigational and search capabilities, 17 main content channels, Web-based communications, alumni club and community services and a platform for e-commerce, subscription and short messaging services. Each of its interest-specific main channels contains multi-level sub-channels that cover a comprehensive range of topics, including news, business, entertainment, sports and careers. The Company also offers free and paid Web-based e-mail.  For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, revenues totaled $80.4 million, up from $28.7 million. Net income totaled $26.4 million vs. a loss of $1 million. Results reflect higher E-subscription revenues due to increased demand for wireless value-added services.


 SOHU was doing it’s best impersonation as a so-so growth stock until it took a huge hit in late January 2003 to the 1/8 Gann frame support level, with a 3/8 retracement (to the 4/8 line) of 31.25.  There is also some rumor floating around about a deal in the works with EBAY which could push it even higher, especially if it sparks off a roaring short squeeze.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


 Market comments.  It’s easy to be a stock market commentator after-the-fact, but our legendary motto has become ~emphasizing the move before it happens~ especially with major resistance and support areas on the indexes that represent major potential turning points.  Newsletter writers send out reams of written material to bury their waffling editorials and shuffling opinions that could be taken any which way (which comes in handy if you want to be right no matter what happens).  Reread our comments from Monday, and we do not waste your time with a gazillion pages of waffling garbage.  The SOX was up 1.8% today and tech stocks were getting a lift, supposedly due to the Greenspan’s comments about an accelerating U.S. economy – so why was the index going up before he started speaking? And why didn’t they tell us this a couple of days earlier?  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.
 

 

Chart of the Day for WEDNESDAY 02-25-04


 NCRX (www.neighborcare.com) NeighborCare, Inc., formerly Genesis Health Ventures, Inc., is a provider of institutional pharmacy services in the United States. As of September 30, 2003, the Company provided pharmacy services for approximately 246,000 beds in long-term care facilities in 32 states and the District of Columbia. Its pharmacy operations consist of 62 institutional pharmacies, 32 community-based professional retail pharmacies and 20 on-site pharmacies, which are located in customers' facilities and serve only customers of that facility. In addition, NeighborCare operates 16 home infusion, respiratory and medical equipment distribution centers. Prior to December 1, 2003, the Company's business also included the operations of Genesis HealthCare Corporation (GHC). On December 1, 2003, the Company completed the distribution of the common stock of GHC. GHC provides inpatient services through skilled nursing and assisted living centers primarily located in the eastern United States.  For the three months ended 12/31/03, revenues rose 11% to $351.4 million. Net loss applicable to Common from continuing operations totaled $12.5 million vs. an income of $4.5 million. Revenues reflect a growth in the rehabilitation services business. Net income was offset by higher salaries, wages, and benefits.


 These health care related companies love to come out with bad news and they love to sell first and ask questions later.  Trigger happy lot.  Check out  ODSY, that selling was apparently justified.  This may not have been.  You’ve probably never heard of this company, and in the current market environment of major tech weakness and churning at the top in the S&P type stocks and index, that may be a good thing.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


 Market comments.  The Nazdog still unable to fight the funk of a multi-week decline (going on for 6 now).  The SPX was roughly down 5, up 10, down 10, up 5.  Mindless buying and selling, however, the 1136 level we mentioned has been holding multiple times on Monday and Tuesday.  See Tuesday’s comments about the market.  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.
 

 

Chart of the Day for TUESDAY  02-24-04

  
ES (March contract of the S&P 500 Emini futures), 60 minute Gann frame chart going back almost a month showing the 6/8 down move and 3/8 up move target area (retracement, just like a Fib retrace).  Note also the triple top with a bearish uniphase stochastic divergence (see chart annotation below) precisely intersected by 8/8 line at 1156.25.  Note also the “significant low” in early February which broke out of the price congestion ellipse from the 0/8 line of 1125 with tails below it indicating the support area.  If we can break out of the “congestion elipse” on Tuesday, we have a good chance at taking a stab (in the next few days) at a 3/8 rally-back to the 6/8 line at 1148.44.  Some say using the Gann frame charts is like cheating.  Others say it’s too stupidly simple to be any earthly good (it’s simple if you don’t know what the rules are).  We use it to pinpoint moves, and emphasize them before they happen.  Anyway, we noted in the Paltalk.com rooms Monday morning that 1126.72 would offer strong support, and that it did.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


 Market comments.  The Nazdog is doing a terrible job at showing any leadership, and has given up all the gains for the year and is being outperformed by the Dow and S&P 500. But if you look closer, the Gann frame chart shows a 6/8 down move on the daily chart (using 16 frame) from the “last significant high” and it bounced off the 0/8 line off 2000 (the COMPX, or Nasdaq Comp) on an intraday basis.  The hourly Gann frame chart shows a nice tight little doji late afternoon right at the 0/8 line (same one, 2000 level).  The SOX (semiconductor index) made a 6/8 down move (daily chart, 16 frame) to the -1/8 line which was also a “local” double bottom.  Remember, the Nervous Nellies tend to wring their little hands at market bottoms (and we’re not trying to predict if this will be a significant market bottom or how long it will last, could be an hour or two, or a month or two, and this could be just a silly little bounce).  However, double bottoms (if this turns out to be one) are there to be bought.  Remember also that Bullish Joe’s tend to be especially confident at market tops.  Money has been rotating out of small (see the RUT dumpage also), mid and even large cap tech stocks and into mid to large cap biotech (we emphasized the money flow into this area 2 months ago, before the move), energy, cyclical, basic materials and industrials.  We traded some several stocks that were up 10-15% or more on Monday, in a down market. Also, QCOM hit a yearly high, so there!  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.
 

 

Chart of the Day for MONDAY 02-23-04



 TASR (www.taser.com )  TASER International, Inc. develops, assembles and markets less-lethal, conducted energy weapons primarily for use in the law enforcement and corrections market. The Company's weapons use compressed nitrogen to shoot two small, electrified probes up to a maximum distance of 21 feet. The probes and compressed nitrogen are stored in a replaceable cartridge attached to the base of the weapon. After firing, the probes discharged from the Company's cartridges remain connected to the weapon by high-voltage insulated wires that transmit electrical pulses into the target. These electrical pulses, which the Company calls TASER-Waves, temporarily overwhelm the normal electrical signals within the body's nerve fibers, impairing subjects' ability to control their bodies or perform coordinated actions. The Company's primary product is the Advanced Taser, which is designed primarily for the law enforcement and corrections market. For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, revenues rose from $9.8 million to $24.5 million. Net income totaled $4.5 million, up from $209 thousand. Revenues reflect higher sales of ADVANCED TASER, primarily to the law enforcement agencies. Earnings also reflect improved operating margins and lower interest expenses.


 We have been trading TASR many times in the Paltalk.com voice rooms, so no need to elaborate, and for those of you who haven't stopped by, this is an example of what  you are missing.  Notice how it broke out of the quiet, low volatiility area after the first week in January 2004.  It was a 91 dollar stock at this point, so those among you who thought it was "too expensive" or "too high"at those levels saw your assumptions get "blown out of the water" as it proceeded to double in price (it has since split 3:1).  See the chart annotations, they should be fairly self-explanatory, except for "reverse divergences."  This is where the indicator takes a big dump, or plunges to the downside (for bullish signals) while price makes a relitively small move to the downside.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


 Market comments.  The SPX on Friday went down 10, up 10, down 5.  Gold broke below $400, and the XAU broke down even further, adding to recent losses.

Even the S&P has been hitting some “air pockets” lately with a 10 point dump in less than an hour, and other interesting maneuvers.  Using median lines to project targets and balance points when the market is “churning at the top” can be unreliable and sometimes meaningless in the S&P, but the Nasdaq shows a market structure that is probably worth “mapping.”    See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.
 

 

Chart of the Day for FRIDAY  02-20-04


 WFII  (www.wfinet.com )  Wireless Facilities, Inc. is an independent provider of outsourced services for the wireless communications industry. The principal services the Company provides include, but are not limited to, project planning, design, deployment and the overall management of wireless telecommunications networks. This work primarily involves radio frequency engineering, site development, project management and the installation of radio equipment networks. It also provides network management services, which involve day-to-day optimization and maintenance of wireless networks. The Company provides business consulting, network design and deployment services and network management services to wireless carriers, including, but not limited to, AT&T Wireless, Cingular, Sprint, T-Mobile, Telcel, Verizon and equipment vendors such as Ericsson, Nortel and Siemens. The Company also provides services to Bechtel Corporation, a global engineering and project management company.  For the nine months ended 9/26/03, revenues rose 32% to $179.3M. Net income totaled $15.4 million vs. a loss of $67 million. Results reflect increased investment by certain large wireless carriers in next-generation networks and reduced special charges.



WFII is a channeling stock, but at least it’s upwardly channeling with a strongly upsloping 200 day m.a.  Nice accumulation volume the last two days.  RSI up thru the 50 line and pointing up perkily with OBV crossing the the m.a. and trend line makes you think this thing could even get up near resistance just above 18.00, marked on the chart. And lest you forget, this is telecom wireless stock, which makes you wonder why it isn't over 100.00 bucks already.   See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.



 Market comments.  Is it real, or is it option expiration?  Is it option expiration, or is it manipulation?  Time will tell.  If breaking out to new highs on low volume (in the indexes) doesn’t worry you, then you should be buying with both hands.  The SOX has a nice looking tail through the upper Bollinger band and the MACD has remained below the zero line for almost 2 weeks even though price has been above the 50 day m.a. for about a week and a half indicating a severe (nice looking) loss of momentum.  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.
 

 

Chart of the Day for THURSDAY  02-19-04


 TKLC  (www.tekelec.com )  TEKELEC designs, manufactures, markets and supports network systems products and selected service applications for telecommunications networks and contact centers. The Company's customers include telecommunications carriers, network service providers and contact center operators. Its network systems products help direct and control voice and data communications. They enable carriers to control, establish and terminate calls. They also enable carriers to offer intelligent services that include any services other than the call or data transmission itself. The Company's contact center products provide workforce management and intelligent call routing systems for single and multiple-site contact centers. The Company sells its contact center products primarily to customers in industries with significant contact center operations such as financial services, telecommunications and retail.  For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, revenues rose 1% to $263.7 million. Net income from continuing operations decreased 5% to $15.2 million. Results reflect increased network systems revenue due to increased sales to wireless operators, offset by $2.9 million acquired in-process R&D expenses. 


TKLC has no growth, shrinking revenues, and declining income – so it should continue to go up!  Don’t laugh, it’s a telecom stock, and they can “do no evil” and some of the ones with the worst fundamentals have don’t the best in price performance.  If this were a telco-wireless stock it would be 100 buck or better by now, no bout adout it.  Fundamentals don’t matter, and amazingly technical analysis doesn’t matter either for this stock, so we eliminated most of the indicators, leaving only the token RSI and OBV. See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


Market comments.  OVTI reported good numbers after-hours on Wednesday and jumped up 20%.  It’s been on our Swing List for over a year for over 200% gains.  In fact, we have double position.  AMAT earnings were also well received by the Street and went up after-hours.  BRCM had a strong volume - price surge on news just when it looked like the game was over and the price action was getter tired. NTES was up 25% on massive volume of over 10 million shares after earnings the day before (it’s still on our Swing List, and we’ve had massive gains, and some have “traded around” the position with the fluctuations).   Things may look tired overall, but you have to look at the action of some of the leading growth stocks around earnings announcements and statements, that’s what really critical, not the hype.  It’s not that complicated:  did it go up or down after earnings.  Up is good, down is bad.  Four legs good, two legs better!  Stay tuned for more market wisdom.   See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.
 

 

Chart of the Day for WEDNESDAY  02-18-04


 BLTI (www.biolase.com )  BioLase Technology, Inc. is a medical technology company that designs, develops, manufactures and markets advanced dental, cosmetic and surgical lasers and related products. The Company's principal products are water- and laser-based systems focused for use in dentistry. The Company holds patents and has received clearances from the United States Food and Drug Administration for applications in markets other than dentistry such as dermatology. BioLase Technology also manufactures accessories and disposable products for its water- and laser-based systems.  For the nine months ended 9/30/03, revenues rose 72% to $33 million. Net income totalled $4.8 million, up from $1.2 million. Revenues benefitted from increased number of units sold. Net income also reflects increased gains on foreign currency transactions, decreased interest expense and higher gross profit margins.


 BLTI is trying to fight its way out of a paper bag, which it was unable to do even when they raised guidance on February 5.  Watch for it to break out of and stay out of the yellow highlighted area which represents the market profile heavy volume area of consensus for the past 6 weeks.  Volume is what pushed it out of the last such area, also highlighted in yellow.  The next two areas of resistance are marked by the red horizontal lines that will turn green (to the right of price) if and when price goes above them. See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.

Market comments.  M & A created a lot of M & S (movin’ and shakin’) on Tuesday with not one index anywhere to be found.  As we keep saying, bearish signals do not work in a bull market (not very well anyway).  When they do start working, the last remaining bears will have been so demolished that they will not even care!  Even European indexes rallied strongly despite continued strength in the Euro (they seem resigned to accepting its relentless uptrend).  The XTC index (telecom) broke out (it was the strongest one out there before the Cingular Wireless – AT&T Wireless buyout deal).  We have Housing Starts and Building Permits on Wednesday at 8:30 ET.   See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.
 

 

Chart of the Day for TUESDAY  02-17-04


 CECO (www.careeered.com )  Career Education Corporation (CEC) is an on-campus provider of private, for-profit, post-secondary education. CEC's Colleges, Schools and Universities Group operates 78 campuses in the United States, Canada, France, the United Kingdom and the United Arab Emirates. It offers doctoral degree, master's degree, bachelor's degree, associate degree and diploma programs in the career-oriented disciplines of visual communication and design technologies, information technology (IT), business studies, culinary arts and health education. The Online Education Group operates American InterContinental Online and Colorado Technical University Online, and offers a variety of degrees in IT, business, visual communication and education.  For the nine months ended 9/30/03, revenues rose 48% to $817.3M. Net income rose 80% to $65.8 million. Results reflect increases in tuition and registration revenues earned by schools acquired or opened and improved operating profit margins.

CECO had triple topping action the week of 2/9/04 with some interesting “tails” touching or going through the resistance level market on the chart.  The last time this happened it got slammed real hard from 55.00 to well below 35.00 on scandal news, or at least allegations and rumors thereof.   Take note also of the bearish divergences which are especially outstanding in the MACD Histogram which has a tiny “tuft” of activity in the last higher high compared to the massive “mound” in the run-up rally-back period after the panic sell-off to the rising 200 day m.a.  Be careful of ANY bearish signals in a bull market:  they usually don’t work!  But you always have to be “on your guard.”  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.

Market comments.  Investors cashed in profits on Friday ahead of the long weekend, plus a bevy of “event risk” occurrences in the form of white power in a Jersey postal facility and a burnt bagel setting off fire alarms in a U.S. Senate building, plus weaker than expected Consumer confidence at 10:00.  Institutional activity has a way of evaporating after 11:00 on Friday, but given the holiday weekend it was even more pronounced this time.  Watch manufacturing data in economic reports this week (but this is only about 25% of the economy, versus services which is most of the rest; also watch option expiration activity in equities. M&A activity may continue to help support the equities market.  And remember, bearish signals don’t really work too well in a bull market!  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.
 

 

Chart of the Day for FRIDAY  02-13-04


 ADAT (www.authentidatehc.com )  Authentidate Holding Corp. (AHC) is involved in the development of security software technology, document imaging software products and systems integration services and products. The Company's products include DocStar document imaging software products, the Authentidate authentication and security software products and system integration services and products through its DJS Marketing Group, Inc. subsidiary. AHC also offers, through the Trac Medical Solutions, Inc. subsidiary, the CareCert Internet-based medical forms processing service. Authentidate products are sold by Authentidate, Inc., Trac Medical Solutions, Inc. and Authentidate International, AG. The Company's subsidiary, DJS, is also an authorized sales and support provider for software products such as Microsoft Solutions and Lotus Notes. DJS sells computer hardware and provides software and integration services to businesses to meet their data management needs.  For the three months ended 9/30/03, revenues fell 40% to $3.3M. Net loss applicable to Common fell 15% to $1.8 million. Results reflect a decline in direct hardware sales by DJS, offset by the $82 thousand absence of eauity in net loss of affiliated companies.


 The major thing this stock (ADAT) has in it’s favor is “market structure” rather than earnings (it doesn’t have any).  However, the prospect of massive future earnings holds promise.  JCOM saw huge price appreciation based on internet related fax apps, and this company does internet document authentication, but that is only a slice of their business.  This was added originally to the Swing List a few months ago below 7.00, and is now in the 15 to 20 Darvas box..   See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


 Market comments.  After Wednesday’s huge move, and Greenspan’s senatorial pontification, the major indexes did what they usually do, and went into sleep mode with a negative bias all day.   However there was plenty of wild action in the Paltalk.com rooms, with TASR up 10+ and IMCL down 10+ intraday.  There was some sympathy buying in AMGN, MEDI, AFFX, and MOGN (a recent chart of the day), however, for swing trading purposes we prefer to see stocks go up and/or consolidate on no news , or any silly hype (which often fizzles sooner than later).   See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.
 

 

Chart of the Day for THURSDAY  02-12-04


 HRS (www.harris.com/harris )  Harris Corporation is an international communications equipment company with five segments. The Government Communications Systems segment develops, designs and produces communication and information processing systems. The RF Communications segment develops, designs, manufactures and sells secure tactical radio products and provides services related to secure tactical radio products. The Microwave Communications segment designs, manufactures and sells microwave radio products and provides services related to microwave radio products. The Network Support segment designs, manufactures and sells telephone test equipment and systems; produces and sells network management systems, and provides services related to these products and systems. The Broadcast Communications segment designs, manufactures and sells television and radio transmission products; produces and sells automation and control systems and studio products, and provides services related to these products and systems.  For the six months ended 1/2/04, revenues rose 20% to $1.17 billion. Net income rose 63% to $59.1 million. Results reflect the U.S. government's growing requirements for improved communications infrastructure, intelligence gathering, and information processing and an increase in operating margins.


 HRS just may help shatter any delusions you may have about how stocks have to fill their gaps.  Three weeks ago the company reported earnings that were, needless to say, very well received by the Street.  It was already in an uptrend, albeit a sleepy one.  This is an example of waiting for the excitement to die down, and then try to get an entry point when they stealthily start to buy again.  You can see how the modified BB has tightened after the ballooning from the earnings related buying.    See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


 Market comments.  They kicked it in with a massive buy program exactly at 11:00 ET when the Fed chairman’s notes were released at the beginning of his testimony to Congress, and then a booster rocket surge of buying at the end of his testimony later in the afternoon (they were worried he’d let something slip about the economy), and the major indexes closed at 32 month highs.  Congressman Ron Paul put it aptly in a question/statement:  this is a strange brand of free capital markets that are controlled by the words of one man, the Greenspan man. However, we do seem to be in a sweet spot of strong economic growth, low interest rates, and low inflation.  Also, there is a strong possibility that hiring will pick up soon.   See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.
 

 

Chart of the Day for WEDNESDAY  02-11-04

  
FLML (www.flamel-technologies.fr )  Flamel Technologies S.A. is a biopharmaceutical company principally engaged in the development of two polymer-based delivery technologies for medical applications. The Company's Micropump technology is a multi-particulate technology for oral administration of small molecule drugs with applications in controlled release, tastemasking and bioavailability enhancement. The Company has three major products based on its Micropump technology: Asacard, a controlled-release formulation of aspirin for the treatment of cardiovascular disease; Metformin XL, a controlled-release form of Metformin that is in development for use for the treatment of Type II diabetes, and Genvir, a controlled-release acyclovir for the treatment of genital herpes. In addition, Flamel has developed new herbicide delivery systems and has patented a biomaterial, ColCys.   For the nine months ended 9/30/03, revenues rose 3% to $13.9 million. Net loss totaled $5.2 million, vs. an income of $3.3M. Revenues reflect an increase in product sales, largely as a result of increased contract manufacturing. Net loss reflects increased research and development activities.


 FLML is a fast-paced, high float-turnover stock, and as such is subject to sharp and volatile moves.  However, the average volume is relatively high, and picked up on Tuesday.  OBV is trying to cross the 20 m.a., but it may take more than one attempt.  The next major areas are 30 and 32.50.  RSI did cross above 50, but in recent months it has seen channeling moves between 25 and 30.   See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


 Market comments.  The institutional activity in the markets has continued to evaporate (low volume in the indexes) presumably ahead of the Fed Chairman’s testimony on Capital Hill (Washington, D.C.).  The S&P 600 small cap index way outperformed the market, and much of the activity so far this week has been in the smaller guys, like PCNTF, and we have been exploiting these market inefficiencies in the Paltalk.com room.   See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.
 

 

Chart of the Day for TUESDAY  02-10-04


 PTRY (www.thepantry.com)  The Pantry, Inc. operates an independently operated convenience store chain in the United States. As of December 1, 2003, it operated 1,392 stores in 10 states under several banners including The Pantry, Kangaroo Express, Golden Gallon, and Lil Champ Food Store. The Company's stores offer a selection of merchandise, gasoline and ancillary products and services designed to appeal to the convenience needs of its customers. As of September 25, 2003 (fiscal year-end 2003), Pantry operated 226 quick-service restaurants within 201 of its locations. The Company also offers a variety of proprietary foodservice programs featuring breakfast biscuits, fried chicken, deli, pizza, tacos and other hot food offerings in 99 of its locations. In addition, at certain of its store locations, Pantry provides ancillary services, such as sale of lottery tickers and money orders, and provision of public telephones, amusement and video gaming, car washes and automated teller machines (ATMs).   For the 13 weeks ended 12/25/03, revenues increased 15% to $751.3M. Net income before accounting change increased less than 1% to $4.9 million. Revenues reflect an increase in the average gasoline retail price per gallon. Net income reflects higher operating expenses.


 This puppy found its way onto the IBD 100 list recently, but like so many canned lists, it was poorly qualified for such an honor as evidenced by a spectacular display of mindless selling recently.  While we’re not advocating bottom fishing, but it is at the bottom of a Darvas box type of area (highlighted in turquoise), with a strongly upsloping 200 day m.a. (currently at 13.75).  See if the lower median line channel supports price.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


 Market comments.  The market put many traders to sleep on Monday (the major averages at least) but we played many fast moving stocks in the Paltalk.com room.  Earnings season is winding down, but there’s no shortage of news from day to day to push stocks around.  There is a lack of economic data this week to move things around.  Oil service stocks (and the index) had a very bullish push ahead of the OPEC meeting/decision on Tuesday.  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.
 

 

Chart of the Day for MONDAY  02-09-04


 PWER (www.power-one.com)  Power-One, Inc. is a designer and manufacturer of power conversion products, most of which are sold to the communications infrastructure market. Its products can be classified into three main groups: alternating current/direct current (AC/DC) power supplies, DC/DC converters and DC power systems. AC/DC power supplies power communications and networking equipment, as well as industrial, automatic/semiconductor test, transportation, medical and other electronic equipment. DC/DC converters, including high-density and low-density products, are generally used to control power on communications printed circuit boards.   For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, revenues increased 11% to $256.3M. Net loss decreased 91% to $18.2 million. Revenues reflect increased product sales. Lower loss also benefitted from the absence of $120.9 million in asset impairment and intangible amortization charges.


Normally, an inverted-V shaped pattern is not bullish, and smacks of a blow-off top, but we’re looking to see if the Fib support levels hold.  There is also some stopping volume on the last red candle before the morning star candle.  Also, look for the lower median line channel to act as support.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


Market comments.  Do not expect gold to rally if the U.S. Dollar continues to firm up against the Yen and Euro (in overnight trade) after the G-7 meeting over the weekend.  Also, look for volume to come into the market next week, because Friday’s rally lacked conviction in the form of volume.  The institutional traders seem to have pattern lately of taking off early on Friday, so judging Friday's volume as a meaningful gauge might be a mistake.  The jobs report on Friday seemed to be just right in terms of balancing interest rates remaining low for a CONSIDERABLE PERIOD but not being bad enough to make it look like job growth will never, ever happen.  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.
 

 

Chart of the Day for FRIDAY  02-06-04


 DECK (www.deckers.com)  Deckers Outdoor Corporation designs and markets footwear, developed for both outdoor activities and everyday casual lifestyle use. The Company offers three primary product lines under the following brand names: Teva sports sandals and rugged outdoor footwear, Simple shoes that combine the comfort elements of athletic footwear with casual styling and Ugg authentic sheepskin boots and other footwear. In November 2002, the Company acquired all of the Teva worldwide assets, including all trademarks, tradenames and all other intellectual property. From 1985 until November 2002, the Company had sold its Teva products under a licensing arrangement. In 2002, the Company sold approximately 4,120,000 pairs of footwear.   For the nine months ended 9/30/03, net sales rose 16% to $85.3M. Net income before accounting change totaled $6.7 million, up from $257 thousand. Revenues reflect higher wholesale sales of Teva due to an improvement in retail sell-through. Higher income also reflects the absence of a $3.5 million litigation cost.


 If you like wild, loose and fast, DECK is for you!  Combine a small float with erratic volume and you’ve got a recipe for fast drawdowns and/or rapid price appreciation.  Teva sandles may not be as hot as TASR stun guns, taking the stock from 6 to almost 160 in a year or so, but most traders would be happy with a double in a stock like this, or any stock like this.  Note how price bounced off the support line (which magically turns green when price is above it).  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.

Market comments.  The employment report Friday morning stalled out the market on Thursday, giving it a tentative tone. The SOX had it’s much anticipated bounce, albeit very slight, almost ½ a percent.  Jobs data is expected to be the strongest in 3 years which could give the market a further shot in the arm.  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.


 

 

Chart of the Day for THURSDAY  02-05-04


 PDCO (www.pattersondental.com)  Patterson Dental Company is a value-added distributor serving the North American dental supply and companion-pet veterinary supply markets. The Company is comprised of two operating segments, Patterson Dental Supply and Webster Veterinary Supply. Patterson Dental Supply is a full-service, value-added supplier to dentists, dental laboratories, institutions and other healthcare professionals. It provides consumable products; advanced technology dental equipment; practice management and clinical software, and office forms and stationery.  For the six months ended 10/25/03, net sales increased 15% to $910.8 million. Net income before acctg. change rose 22% to $64.3M. Revenues reflect robust demand for CEREC three dental restorative system and higher Veterinary sales. Net income reflects higher finance income and profit on currency exchange.


PDCO is a slow but sure growth company with a nice trend for the past couple of quarters. See annotations on the chart of the coinciding 50 day m.a. and the 38.2% Fib retrace support (hidden support).  The RSI is pointing up ever so slightly above the 50 line.  OBV crossed the 20 day m.a. a couple of weeks ago and the m.a. is now starting to point up, and the indicator itself is notching along in consolidation mode.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.

Market comments.  CSCO falls 9% after their disappointing conference call and guidance, but IBM looks ready to break out and closed above 100.00 by a hair of its chinny chin chin.  The Nasdaq dumped 52 points or -2.5%, and CSCO traded 190 million shares. Many think the sell-off was unwarranted in view of their prospects in 2004, and the fact that their sales were the best in 3 years.  Be careful of SPX support just below these levels re: the break out of the bear flag pattern.  We gave the bearish divergence alerts on the 60 min. chart last week.  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.


 

 

Chart of the Day for WEDNESDAY  02-02-04
GENZ (www.genzyme.com)  Genzyme Corporation is a global biotechnology that develops and markets therapeutic products and services for serious diseases. The Company's broad product portfolio is focused on rare genetic disorders, renal disease and osteoarthritis and includes an array of diagnostic products and services. Genzyme researches into novel approaches to cancer, heart disease and other areas of unmet medical need. The Company serves patients in over 80 countries worldwide. For the nine months ended 9/30/03, revenues rose 28% to $1.24 billion. Net loss before accounting change totaled $124.9 million vs. an income of $60.2 million. Revenues reflect higher sales of Cerezyme enzyme replacement therapy for Gaucher disease and sales growth of Renagel. Net loss reflects a $102.8 million impairment charge.


 GENZ is not the easiest ticker symbol to type no matter how good a touch typist you are!  We alerted this one several weeks ago (see chart annotation) in the Paltalk.com room when we saw the signs of heavy accumulation intraday, and then the daily chart started to look pretty indeed, especially when it cracked 50.00.  Notice the miniscule pullback in RSI as price pulled back below it’s rising 10 day m.a. (purple line on the chart).  The 200 day m.a. is rising steadily (see comments about BTK below).  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.

Market comments.  The SOX (Semiconductor Index) did another retest of the 61.8% Fib support area with a spinning top candle and is “scheduled” for a bounce (hehe!).  OBV is pointing up and RSI is flattening out and trying to point up.  The 200 day m.a. is still up-trending very strongly and is at 438.6 , with price closing at 508.53.  Look for the 500 whole number support also.  We had the accumulation alert the second week of December 03 (along with the SOX - see chart archives).  The SPX number we gave for this week in the Swing Report is still holding sway, just like it did last week and into Monday trading.  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.


 

 

Chart of the Day for TUESDAY 02-03-04


 RSYS (www.radisys.com)  RadiSys Corporation provides embedded systems for compute, data processing and network-intensive applications to original equipment manufacturers within the commercial systems, service provider systems and enterprise systems markets. The Company provides technology solutions to its customers while improving their time-to-market advantage and reducing total life-cycle costs. RadiSys provides system architecture, design, sourcing, configuration, delivery and full product life-cycle management to systems providers. The Company designs and delivers a broad range of products at different levels of integration: complete turnkey systems; embedded subsystems and functional platforms; compute, I/O (input/output) and packet processing blades; software, middleware and microcode, and semiconductors.. For the nine months ended 9/30/03, revenues fell 3% to $147.5 million. Net income from continuing operations totaled $4.5 million vs. a loss of $3M. Results reflect poor economic conditions, offset by a decrease in number of employee.


 RSYS has a market cap of only $420 million but it has really been acting like a big dog as it bolted up past the 50 day near 18.00 (it already had a strongly up-sloping 200 day m.a., currently near 16.00).  If it keeps things up at this rate, it is scheduled to be a mid cap in a month or two!  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


 Market comments.  The level in the S&P we gave in the Swing Report for this week held sway, and we say a big 10+ point dump at 3:30 ET, even though a massive buy program kicked in at 11:00 ET for a 15 point surge.  Amazingly, the median line levels have been respected even when they kick it in with a 20 point buy program surge last week.  The buy programs just prevent the Wall Street jokers from having to make an actual trading decision, but don’t get on the wrong side of them.  See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.


 

 

Chart of the Day for MONDAY  02-02-04
 

SHRP (www.sharperimage.com)  Sharper Image Corporation is a specialty retailer of products in the electronics, recreation and fitness, personal care, houseware, travel, toy, gifts and other categories. The Company's merchandising philosophy focuses principally on proprietary Sharper Image Design products and exclusive Sharper Image branded products and, to a lesser extent, on third-party branded products. It designs and develops its Sharper Image Design products, while Sharper Image branded products are designed by third parties or jointly designed with the Company. The Company markets and sells its merchandise primarily through three integrated sales channels: The Sharper Image stores, sharperimage.com and The Sharper Image catalog, which includes revenue from all direct marketing activities and television infomercials. For the nine months ended 10/31/03, revenues rose 25% to $378.8 million. Net income totalled $2.5 million vs. a loss of $972 thousand. Revenues benefited from the popularity of the sharper image design proprietary products. Net income also reflects increased interest income and lower interest expense.


SHRP had increasing volume the last two trading days while price advanced steadily.  Note how strongly OBV is pointing up and away from the moving average, after having crossed over with the help of a gap up three weeks ago.  MACD has a bullish stance and price bounced off the 50 day m.a. twice in the last couple of months.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


 Market comments.  The S&P continued to waffle around the pivotal 1127 that we gave a week earlier in the Swing Report, the market quivered a bit, and the buyers disappeared by high noon or before.  Traders seemed confused by the recent bout of Fedspeak last week (surprise, surprise!)  See   See the chart below updated intraday, everyday, and we have several real time index charts with extensive annotations at this Stockcharts.com direct link (click on the word “link”) and please vote for the MOM chart list every day.