COD Archive:

Chart of the Day for THURSDAY  04-29-04

SINA See the P&F chart (Point and Figure) for the “Descending Triple Bottom Breakdown” which usually means that you, as a trader, are at liberty to “short every rally” (which sounds good when you sing it using the Sound of Music theme song,  “Climb Every Mountain.”  The price objective is 25, but the breakdown in these Chinese stocks is substantial, so there could be more dumpage below that level.  Also, see the news of a “Chinese slowdown” – so SINA is no longer growing at 200%, but now only 100% or so. See this Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers, plus a weekly wrap/voice class in Paltalk on Friday.  Click here -------------------------------->>>>>>> http://www.mindovermarket.com/mindovermarkets/swing_trarading.asp


Market comments.   Kind of tough trying to get long when the stinking VIX is at the lower BB and said BB is tight as all get-out.  When there’s no volatility in the Volatility index, watch out below (there’s a good chance of it anyway).  Nevertheless, we had two biotech related stocks on the Swing List added 10 days ago that had very solid up moves.  One is still working on a 20% gain, the other +7.5% (even after Wednesday’s debacle in which they just dumped everything.  It was a “take no prisoners” type of day in which even gold and oil were “taken apart.”  It was almost heartening, but gave little solace to see the XAU get annihilated to the tune of –7%.


 

 

Chart of the Day for WEDNESDAY  04-28-04


CDIS
  http://www.caldive.com  Cal Dive International, Inc. is an energy services company specializing in subsea construction and well operations, as well as providing oil and gas companies with alternatives to traditional approaches of equity sharing in offshore properties. The Company operates primarily in the Gulf of Mexico, and in the North Sea with services that cover the lifecycle of an offshore oil and gas field. Its diversified fleet of 23 vessels and 21 remotely operated vehicles and trencher systems perform services that support drilling, well completion, intervention, construction and decommissioning projects involving pipelines, production platforms, risers and subsea production systems. The Company has also acquired significant interests in oil and gas properties and related production facilities as part of its Production Partnering business.  For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, revenues rose 31% to $396.3M. Net income before acct. change applicable to Common totalled $32.2 million, up from $12.4 million. Results reflect the contribution of Canyon and new additions to the Company's DP fleet as well as increased gross profit margins. 



From biotech to oil service as the COD, what a deal.  We usually don’t like oil and gold, but the buying came into CDIS and the earnings growth look solid, and it surged up on solidly higher volume above the double top resistance of 28.00 as the 50 day m.a. starts to get pulled onward and upward (and up-sloping), as it gets further and further from the 200 day, a good sign of institutional accumulation, which is now at a B+ rating per the IBD.  It is trying to get out of the upsloping (about 45 degree angle) price channel (see chart below).  See this
Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers, plus a weekly wrap/voice class in Paltalk on Friday.  Click here -------------------------------->>>>>>> http://www.mindovermarket.com/mindovermarkets/swing_trarading.asp



Market comments.   SOX –1.35%, not a huge decline, but in the context of the downtrend it’s in, that is a big deal (it had its second day below the 200 day m.a.).  Three days, three dojis, high wave dojis that is, on the ES.  We’re basically having “mood swings” as the market thrashes around trying to “discover” what price it should be trading at while it thumps up on good earnings news and forecasts, then gets hammered on “interest rate fears” and then starts “trading on terror.”  The dojis had their open/close above the 20 day m.a. but the 20 day is now starting to roll over on the daily chart, plus we had a whacky open on Tuesday on the 45 min. chart with a “blatantly” bearish CCI divergence.  Today’s open will take us below the 20 day (daily chart) for the first time since those “indecision” dojis (some people think it’s Japanese for indecision!)

 

 

Chart of the Day for TUESDAY  04-27-04


IVGN  http://www.invitrogen.com/    Invitrogen Corporation is a supplier of kits, reagents, sera and cell media and informatics software for life sciences research, drug discovery and the production of biopharmaceuticals. The Company focuses its business on two principal segments, BioDiscovery and BioProduction. The BioDiscovery product segment supplies reagents, kits and informatics to enable scientists to isolate, amplify, purify, identify and characterize genes and their related proteins. The Company's kits consist of all the reagents necessary to perform a specific experiment and are optimized to simplify and improve the reliability and yield of such experiment. The BioProduction segment supplies mammalian sera, cell and tissue culture media, reagents biologics testing and specialized manufacturing. These products provide the physiological conditions and nutrients necessary for cells to grow outside their native environment.  For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, revenues increased 20% to $777.7 million. Net income increased 26% to $60.1 million. Results reflect a strong growth in cloning and gene expression product lines and a decrease in business integration costs.



IVGN is a biotech stock with very solid earnings and revenue growth.  As stated yesterday in this space, the BTK (Biotech Index) is red hot, and getting hotter every week it seems.  Fortunately, we added another two biotech stocks over a week ago to the Swing List, and one of them was up over 7 points on Monday, but we have others, including IMCL which is +420% as we write.  However, OSIP is a tough act to follow, +53.16 on the day, but the max gain for the day was another 7.50, or over 60 points, and MarketMaster was alerting this from way before the open (know of any one else making those kind of calls folks?)  You just don’t want to think about the pain the shorts must have experienced Monday, kind of like a “Black Monday” for those poor souls.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers, plus a weekly wrap/voice class in Paltalk on Friday.  Click here -------------------------------->>>>>>> http://www.mindovermarket.com/mindovermarkets/swing_trarading.asp


Market comments.   All the hoopla in the BTK didn’t really spill over into the rest of the market, and the initial gains were very short lived.  The talk today was all about the SOX not holding the 200 day m.a. and then closing below it as it dropped 2.7%.  This happened on 3/22/04 and 4/20/04, and the pattern looks like Tuesday and Wednesday ought to be interesting.  Earnings season is showing incredible strength in profit growth of 26% versus projected earnings growth of 16.8%, but they apparently think it’s more important to obsess about interest rate and inflation.

 

 

 

Chart of the Day for MONDAY  04-26-04   

FWHT http://www.findwhat.com/   FindWhat.com is a developer and provider of performance-based marketing services for the Internet. To accomplish this full circle e-commerce offering, FindWhat.com provides three primary, proprietary performance-based services: the FindWhat.com Network, a keyword-targeted advertisement service that distributes advertisements throughout the Internet each day; a private label service, which offers large companies the opportunity to brand and sell their own performance-based, keyword-targeted advertising service using the Company's turnkey operation, or parts thereof, and a set of merchant services, which are commerce-enabling products and services that help online businesses capitalize on opportunities to transacting business on the Internet.   For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, revenues rose 69% to $72.2 million. Net income rose 10% to $11.8 million. Revenues reflect increased paid click-throughs and higher average revenue per click-through. Net income was partially offset by increased marketing, sales, and service expenses.



FWHT reports earnings Monday evening after the close, but it’s already got  a reasonably strong chart, as it “meanders” back and forth, above and below the 200 day m.a.  It has already been “rebuffed” by the 7/8 line and could make “another run for the border.”  We have already featured ASKJ a few days ago, and this is certainly a stronger member of the same group and did well since we posted it.  See this Swing Trading link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers, plus a weekly wrap/voice class in Paltalk on Friday.  Click here -------------------------------->>>>>>> http://www.mindovermarket.com/mindovermarkets/swing_trarading.asp


Market comments.   Can you imagine if understanding “Greenspeak” was a prerequisite for swing trading.  Most of us would be “dead in the water.”  If you had a double major in English and Economics you might be able to understand that kind of verbose verbiage.  Also, can you imagine if trying to figure out whether the economy is deflationary versus inflationary was an absolute necessity in deciding whether or not to be involved in the stock market.  Your head would be spinning so fast you’d NEVER be involved.  We added two biotech stocks a week ago to the Swing List (they were both up over 7% on the week), and one of them will gap up 3 points Monday morning.  The BTK is getting hotter, what with the OSIP news of their cancer drug (can you say 40+ point gap?)

 

 

 

Chart of the Day for FRIDAY  04-23-04


CELG  http://www.genesis-microchip.com Celgene Corporation is an integrated biopharmaceutical company primarily engaged in the discovery, development and commercialization of therapies designed to treat cancer and immunological diseases through regulation of cellular, genomic and proteomic targets. The Company has built a discovery, development and commercialization platform for drug- and cell-based therapies that allows it to both create and retain significant value within its therapeutic franchise areas of cancer and immune/inflammatory diseases. This target-to-therapeutic platform integrates both small molecule and cell-based therapies and spans the key functions required to generate a pipeline of new drugs and cell therapy candidates. Celgene's commercial stage programs include pharmaceutical sales of Thalomid and Alkeran, a licensing agreement with Novartis for Focalin and the entire Ritalin family of drugs and biotherapeutic products through Celgene Cellular Therapeutics.  For the fiscal year ended 12/03, revenues totaled $271.5 million, up from $135.7 million. Net income from continuing operations totaled $12.8 million vs. a loss of $101 million. Results reflect increased product sales of THALOMID(R), and the absence of a $55.7 million acquired in-process R&D expenses.


We have featured CELG before as a Chart of the Day, and if you look at the recent price action, and their “record earnings” that they reported Thursday morning, you’ll begin to understand why we like this stock so much.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers, plus a weekly wrap/voice class in Paltalk on Friday.  Click here -------------------------------->>>>>>> http://www.mindovermarket.com/mindovermarkets/swing_trarading.asp



Market comments.   They were unable to ignore booming profits that were being  reported this week.  We are now back above “pre-manipulation” levels  and like we stated yesterday <<it’s hard to know what to make of manipulation>> and separate it from “professional” selling, when they are all a bunch of “lap-dogs” of the Fed-watch hype and manipulation nonsense.  We just mentioned CCMP two days ago and about how our patience was “paying off” and, voila, we got another 11% dump on Thursday, or over 4 points, added to our already substantial gains in the Swing Report swing list.  YHOO on the other hand, they just can’t seem to be able to sell that off.  We are now up over 200% in unrealized long term capital gains.  They were not even able to sell it off in the short term.

 

 

 

Chart of the Day for THURSDAY  04-22-04


GNSS  http://www.genesis-microchip.com/  Genesis Microchip Inc. designs, develops and markets integrated circuits (ICs) that receive and process digital video and graphic images. The Company also supplies reference boards and designs that incorporate its proprietary ICs. It is targeting flat-panel computer monitor, flat-panel television and progressive scan cathode ray tube (CRT) television applications and other potential high-volume applications. In addition, Genesis Microchip sells finished systems primarily to the high-end video market under the Faroudja brand. The Company markets and sells its products through authorized distributors and directly to customers with the support of regional sales representatives.  For the nine months ended 12/31/03, revenues rose 14% to $158.5 million. Net loss decreased 86% to $2.3M. Revenues reflect an increase in units shipped and the combined strength of the Company's technology. Lower loss reflect lower provision for costs associated with patent litigation.

Pertinent conference call information is as follows:

Date: Thursday, April 29, 2004
Time: 5:00 p.m. (EDT)
Call-in #: (719) 457-2634

With earnings coming up in about a week, let’s see if we can get an earnings run out of this puppy.  You can see how it “cleanly” cleared the major 18.75 Gann level that had “impeded” it before (on 4/06/04 the high of the day was 18.75).  If price goes above 20.31 it will “change frames.”  It closed on Wednesday at 19.41, +1.34 for the day.  See this
Swing Trading link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers, plus a weekly wrap/voice class in Paltalk on Friday. Click here -------------------------------->>>>>>> http://www.mindovermarket.com/mindovermarkets/swing_trarading.asp


Market comments.   We’ve gone from “trading on terror” to being “terrorized by the Fed” and “being on Fed-watch.”  That’s’ real nice, let a “free market” be manipulated by a bunch of private bankers.  When a stock gets “taken apart” due to an earnings report that the Street didn’t like, that is a definite reason to be concerned (if you own the stock), but it’s hard to know what to make of manipulation.  Nevertheless, it’s kind of tough to hide professional selling, but it makes you wonder whether it was more a symptom of “Fed terror” and “temper tantrums” or actual professional selling.

 

 

 

Chart of the Day for WEDNESDAY  04-21-04


YHOO  http://www.yahoo.com/   Yahoo! Inc. is a provider of Internet products and services to consumers and businesses through the Yahoo! Network, its worldwide network of online properties. The Company's properties and services for consumers and businesses reside in four areas: Search and Marketplace, Information and Content, Communications and Consumer Services and Affiliate Services. Its basic products and service offerings are available without charge to its users. It also offers a variety of fee-based services that provide users access to value-added content or services. The Company also sells marketing and advertising services to businesses across its properties and services. During 2003, Yahoo! completed the acquisitions of Inktomi Corporation and Overture Services, Inc. in March and October, respectively. Inktomi is a provider of Web search and paid inclusion services on the Internet. Overture is a provider of commercial search services on the Internet, including pay-for-performance search services.  For the three months ended 3/04, revenues totaled $757.8 million, up from $282.9 million. Net income totaled $101.2 million, up from $46.7 million. Revenues reflect increased global sponsored search services and the overall growth in marketing services. Net income also reflects higher gross margins.


Frankly, SINA and KLAC are probably “safer” shorts right now, but we wanted to demonstrate the beauty of the Gann frame for YHOO.  We almost had a 200% gain in it on the Swing List, but all good things must come to an end (and we are not trying to predict if this is a long-term death for YHOO or a short term interruption in the long-term up trend).  Typically a pattern like this where there is an exhaustion gap then a double top is not a good sign for further bullishness.  YHOO has outperformed the SPX by almost 100% in the past 12 months, but momentum has been waning despite the recent and seeming bullishness.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers, plus a weekly wrap/voice class in Paltalk on Friday.


Market comments.   What kind of “free market” is it when the words of one man, the Greenspan man, a private banker, can cause the markets to be so manipulated?  We’ve said it before, but it bears repeating.  Not only that, but his words were “nothing new.”  Everyone knew interest rates were an issue from last week.  And Tuesday’s testimony was not “supposed” to be a market moving experience compared to Wednesday’s testimony.  So does that mean the S&P 500 will drop 50 points vs. the 20 point dump on Tuesday?  We now have two distinct lower highs (below the triple top) on that index with 2 days of professional selling, and for the Nasdog there are 3 days in the last 6 of professional.  This means that if you are a pro-trader, you are raising cash or have already raised cash (as in liquidated equity holdings and CERTAINLY off margin), and if you are a real pro-trader you are enjoying some of the “core short” positions in the Swing List like QLGC, which is basically “damaged goods” right now, and CCMP, which we have been very patient with (it liked to rally for no apparent reason, but we stuck with it).  As we have been saying, you have to be very concerned when a bunch of garbage stocks like IPIX are being pumped up to astronomical heights.  We enjoyed the action in the Paltalk rooms, but someone has to “pay the piper” and the “aftermath” can be a blood-bath.  Our shorts on the Swing List were doing well before, so we don’t really care about this silly “noise” – but it certainly didn’t hurt!

 

 

 

Chart of the Day for TUESDAY  04-20-04


AFFX  http://www.affymetrix.com/  Affymetrix, Inc. is engaged in the development, manufacture, sale and service of systems for genetic analysis in the life sciences. The Company has developed and intends to establish its GeneChip system and related microarray technology as the platform of choice for acquiring, analyzing and managing complex genetic information. The Company's integrated GeneChip platform consists of disposable DNA probe arrays containing gene sequences on a chip, certain reagents for use with the probe arrays, a scanner and other instruments to process the probe arrays, as well as software to analyze and manage genetic information from the probe arrays. The Company's related microarray technology includes instrumentation, software and licenses for fabricating, scanning and collecting and analyzing results from low-density microarrays.  For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, revenues rose 4% to $300.8 million. Net income totaled $14.3M, vs. a loss of $1.6 million. Revenues reflect the launch of the new GeneChip Scanner 3000 and GeneChip Fluidics Station 450 in 2003, resulting in customer instrument upgrades. Net income also reflects improved margins and fewer R&D expenses.


AFFX was alerted in the Paltalk room when the volume started kicking in as it surpassed the high of the previous trading day near 35.50.  It had a very strong close at the high of the day two points later.  AFFX has been outperforming the SPX by 50% so far this year.  Look for support at the “waist” of 36.26, and implied targets of 38.28 and 39.06 on the Gann frame chart. See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers, plus a weekly wrap/voice class in Paltalk on Friday.


Market comments.   The Nasdaq conveniently chose the day after option expiration to break the 4 day losing streak and reversed roles with the S&P 500 by leading rather than taking a back seat as it did on Friday.  However, the 1.23% gain in the COMPX and the 1.68% gain in the NDX was muted by the lower volume from Friday’s and it was also lower than average.  However, there is promise in the fact that the BTK was +2.83%, IIX +1.85%, GSO +1.5%, and SOX +1.43%.  Speaking of the BTK (Biotech Index), our Swing List stock from over a year ago (we are +370%) was +12% again today.  We are talking about IMCL, and it is now officially above pre-scandal levels (i.e., above where Martha Steward sold it).  They basically “pegged” the SPX ahead of Greenspan’s testimony on Tuesday, and the more market-moving testimony on Wednesday.

 

 

 

Chart of the Day for MONDAY  04-19-04


ASKJ (http://www.ask.com/ Ask Jeeves, Inc. offers an advanced Internet search technology to the public through advertiser-supported sites on the Web. It operates four Websites dedicated to search: Ask.com, Ask.co.uk, Teoma.com and AJKids.com. On its flagship Websites, Ask.com in the United States and Ask.co.uk in the United Kingdom, users submit their search requests, and the Company's algorithmic search technology, Teoma, delivers a results list of Web pages likely to contain relevant and authoritative answers. The results page also displays advertiser-sponsored links to related products and services known as paid listings. Ask Jeeves also delivers or syndicates its search technology and advertising products to approximately 41 third-party Websites as of December 31, 2003, including portals, infomediaries and content and destination Websites. The Company provides search results and/or advertising for those Websites to display in response to their users' search queries.  For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, revenues rose 65% to $107.3M. Net income from continuing operations totaled $24.8 million, vs. a loss of $10.9 million. Revenues reflect a growth in site traffic. Net income also benefited from improved gross profit and operating margins.


ASKJ has been outperforming the Nasdaq which is not only an “understatement” but not too difficult to do just by being positive for the year!   Not only is ASKJ positive for the year, but it is up almost 100% year to date whereas the Nasdog is slightly down for the year and the Dow is flat-lining.  ASKJ is +294% in the last 12 months and +25% in the last 4 weeks, and for the past 12 months it is outperforming the SPX by 270%.  Not too shabby in what has lately been a go-nowhere market.  But that’s what we do at MOM.  Another strong performer in the same group as ASKJ is JUPM, but with rather low volume.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers, plus a weekly wrap/voice class in Paltalk on Friday.


Market comments.   It will be a light week of economic reports and a heavy one for earnings reports, as see comments in the Swing Report about why this is a rather critical week.  We do have the 10:00 ET Leading Indicators report today and then the Greenspan testimony on Tuesday, and especially Wednesday that may affect the markets when he testifies on the U.S. economic outlook before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, in Washington.  The small caps (as reflected by the Russell 2000 and the SML index) are way outperforming the other indexes, especially the Nasdaq which is down 0.4% for the year.  The Dow Jones is exactly breakeven or flat for the year, and the SPX (S&P 500 Index) is +2.0%.  The Russell 2000 (RUT) is +4.8%, and this is a very broad index (2000 stocks).  The mid caps are also doing relatively well (S&P 400) and are +4.3% for the year.
 

 

 

Chart of the Day for FRIDAY  04-16-04


ABIX  (http://www.abatix.com Abatix Corporation markets and distributes personal protection and safety equipment and durable/nondurable supplies.  For the nine months ended 9/30/03, revenue fell 18% to $38 million. Net income before acct. change fell 81% to $214 thousand. Revenues reflect a reduction in sales to mold remediation contractors. Net income also reflects a decrease in gross profit.  As you can see, “fundamentals” mean nothing when a mania sets in, because they couldn’t be worse on this company.



ABIX is yet another example of a stock that MarketMaster alerts from the 8:00 “pre-market open” (ET), and this one was another “stunner.”  Volume came in near the pre-market open at 7.25 (yes, price) and it kept pumping up all day up to the 7/8 Gann level on the 60 minute and daily chart at 17.18 (with a “resistance tail” up thru that level on the 60 min chart).  Yes, you read that right, 7.25 (and below) on up to 17.18 (and above).  We haven’t seen that kind of action out of 100+ dollar stocks (except perhaps TASR) recently (remember, TASR is also a “security and safety stock”).  10+ points on a sub-10 dollar stock….make that a sub-7 dollar stock as of the day before!  See the projected resistance and target areas on the Gann chart below of 18.75 (a biggie area) and 20.31.  Also see the support area of 14.06 which is also near the “waist” (labeled on the chart).  Volume on Thursday was a whopping 24 million shares on Thursday vs. average of about 500k.  This is also part of the “security frenzy” (mania) we have been seeing (stocks with lousy fundamentals that are pumped up mostly because of the sector they are in).   See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers, plus a weekly wrap/voice class in Paltalk on Friday.


Market comments.   We were watching the 500 whole number on the SOX on Thursday.  It was penetrated on Thursday on the INTC earnings outlook, after a few quarters of “easy comparisons” year/year.  The SOX took a 2.85% dump, however if you look at the daily chart there is a “support tail” on the Thursday’s candle stick daily chart that goes thru the 50% retracement level that comes in at 386, and the index closed at 488.76.  The 61.8% retrace level comes in at 478.  Other chip companies came in with very strong results, like CY with revenue up 41%.  One chip related stock that is still on the Swing List as a short is CCMP, and it broke support (again) very nicely on Thursday, and we are up 32%.  This has been a nice “core position” short.  As we kept telling readers in recent weeks, CCMP << has been known to go up for no apparent reason from time to time, but it does look vulnerable>> (in the Swing List Review section of the Swing Report.  We have had this position as a short for over 4 months.

 

 

Chart of the Day for THURSDAY  04-15-04


TASR  (http://www.taser.com/ TASER International, Inc. develops, assembles and markets less-lethal, conducted energy weapons primarily for use in the law enforcement and corrections market. The Company's weapons use compressed nitrogen to shoot two small, electrified probes up to a maximum distance of 21 feet. The probes and compressed nitrogen are stored in a replaceable cartridge attached to the base of the weapon. After firing, the probes discharged from the Company's cartridges remain connected to the weapon by high-voltage insulated wires that transmit electrical pulses into the target. These electrical pulses, which the Company calls TASER-Waves, temporarily overwhelm the normal electrical signals within the body's nerve fibers, impairing subjects' ability to control their bodies or perform coordinated actions. The Company's primary product is the Advanced Taser, which is designed primarily for the law enforcement and corrections market.  For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, revenues rose from $9.8 million to $24.5 million. Net income totaled $4.5 million, up from $209 thousand. Revenues reflect higher sales of ADVANCED TASER and the sales of new TASER X26. Earnings also reflect improved operating margins and lower interest expenses.


TASR, let us count the ways we love thee!  Don’t get us wrong, this is not an easy stock to day trade in a scalping sort of way, in fact it is downright dangerous.  But for “day position trading” many of us have “given it a go” (it has traded between 4 and 20 million shares a day over the past couple of weeks).  We’ve posted this as the Chart of the Day many times in recent weeks (see this month and archives of previous months).  See the Gann chart below for the target areas of 106.25 and 112.50, and the possible support area of 87.50, an important so-called “Gann level.”   See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers, plus a weekly wrap/voice class in Paltalk on Friday.


Market comments.   The range expansion in the ES (S&P 500 Emini futures) has created some truly amazing trading opportunities to make or lose money.  You don’t want to be on the wrong side of this one.  Never underestimate the power of “mother nature” or the ES to have a 10+ point sell-off just when things look “bullish.”  We had a “double test” of a “necessary” Fib retracement on the daily chart.  Speaking of retracements, check out IPIX and TBUS.  IPIX was down almost 30% on Wednesday, and is STILL a couple of points above the 10 day moving average (daily chart).  And if you’ve never heard of these stocks and think they are dangerous to day trade, IPIX traded 23 million shares (over 50 million on Monday of this week), and TBUS traded over 4 million on Wednesday (and about 20 million on Monday).  The CPI report today suggested inflation may be “picking up” so apparently that is a good thing because they are looking for a little “bad news” in the economic report department.  So it seems that the prospect of interest rates being “cut to the bone” indefinitely is over and then they have their usual “tantrum.”  Gold broke down below 400.00 on the heels of a massive sell-off on Tuesday.

 

 

Chart of the Day for WEDNESDAY  04-14-04


LLTC (http://www.linear-tech.com/ Linear Technology Corp. designs, manufactures and markets a line of standard, high-performance linear integrated circuits. Applications for the Company's products include telecommunications, cellular telephones, networking products, notebook and desktop computers, computer peripherals, video/multimedia, industrial instrumentation, security monitoring devices, high-end consumer products (such as digital cameras and MP3 players), complex medical devices, automotive electronics, factory automation, process control and military and space systems.  For the six months ended 12/28/03, revenues rose 25% to $360.1 million. Net income rose 31% to $143.8 million. Results reflect increased unit shipments and improved gross margins.


LLTC posted stronger than expected profits Tuesday after the close, and this should have positive implications for stocks like MXIM.  They are seeing “broad-based demand” and reports of the chip sector’s early demise faked out a lot of institutional money it seems.  We’ve been emphasizing in the Swing Report for months that supply/demand issues are very healthy despite what some of the Chicken Little commentators are saying.  And if you are wondering why we make such a big deal of the chip sector, you probably are not a subscriber to the Swing Report. See the 7/8 target area of 42.19 on the chart below if there is any bullishness left in the “wall of worry.”  See also the support scenario on the chart.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers, plus a weekly wrap/voice class in Paltalk on Friday.


Market comments.   Supposedly “interest rate fears” fueled the sell-off on Tuesday.  TRIN was not that bearish at 1.1 to 1.2 so it must have faked out a lot of traders in that the range expansion was huge and not in keeping with any particular news and the lack of “bearishness” on the surface made it all the more surprising.  But that’s the job of the “market” – to fake out as many people as possible in the short and long term.  If traders don’t have something to worry about, they will “make up” something to worry about, and even go to extraordinary lengths of worrying about “good news” like the strong economic reports we have been having, which will give way to interest rate hikes sooner than later.  Professional selling was also evident in that volume was higher at both the NYSE and Nasdaq (which took a 1.7% dump).  See our comments in the Swing Report last weekend about why this sell-off “had to happen.”

 

 

Chart of the Day for TUESDAY  04-13-04


TBUS (http://www.digrec.com/) Digital Recorders, Inc. designs, manufactures, sells and services information technology and audio surveillance technology products for the transportation communications market and the law enforcement and surveillance market. The transportation communications segment produces automated announcement and passenger information systems and electronic destination sign products for municipalities, regional transportation districts and departments of transportation and bus vehicle manufacturers. The law enforcement and surveillance segment produces digital signal processing products for law enforcement agencies and organizations.  For the nine months ended 9/30/03, revenues rose 6% to $34.1 million. Net income applicable to Common totaled $109 thousand vs. a loss of $404 thousand. Results reflect higher international sales, increased U.S. Federal Government orders and improved gross margins.


TBUS is one of many examples of security related stocks that got “majorly pumped and juiced and goosed.”  Notice the “symmetry” of the price action on the Gann chart, with the 4/8 balance area at 12.50, the 8/8 at 18.75, a major area of testing before a stock can get out of teenie bopper status, and the 7/8 resistance of 17.18, where the price action stalled.  This is just one example of stocks that were alerted and traded.  See below for an extensive documentation of alerts and trades.  With less than a million in the float and the float turning over about 20 times on Monday, the stock was “floating on air.”    See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers, plus a weekly wrap/voice class in Paltalk on Friday.


Market comments.   A lot of MindOverMarket.com traders have been building security for themselves and their families by trading today’s movers, most of which were security stocks.  Here are some of the alerts and trades in the Paltalk room by MarketMaster:  ICTS 5.50 (conformation number) to 10.43; IPIX (again, see our comments from last week) 15.00 (pre-market) to 22.16 (and it went as high as 27.34); TBUS (see chart below) 9.15 (pre-mkt) to a high of 16.87; MACE 4.20 (pre-mkt) to 8.80; RIMM 104 to 109.39; MAGS (short) 40.50 (failed confirmation number, and reversal) to below 31.00; TRNI 2.00 to 3.92; ABCX 3.00 (pre-mkt) 3.20 to 5.00; ABIX  4.22 to 7.15.  If it had anything to do with protection, safety, or homeland security and it wasn’t moving, they made sure it moved regardless of things like gross margins, earnings and revenue growth, and other trivialities like that.  You may think it’s ridiculous, but the market just is.  It’s there to trade.  There have been more diverse trading opportunities in the past couple of weeks it seems than what we saw in the bubble era of 1999 and 2000, which was concentrated in a few brokerage firm hype and pump stocks like AMZN (“scamazon”).  Don’t get caught in the trap of thinking the market will always be a “cash register” and hold on to garbage stocks with a misplaced “buy and  hold” mentality.

 

 

Chart of the Day for MONDAY  04-12-04


INSP (http://infospace.com/ InfoSpace, Inc. develops and delivers a wireless and Internet platform of software and application services to a range of customers that span each of its wireline, merchant and wireless business units. Many of the Company's products and application services are offered to its customers, which, in turn, offer these products and application services to their customers as their own solutions. InfoSpace provides its services across multiple platforms, including personal computers (PCs) and non-PC devices. In the wireline business, it delivers its services throughout its own sites, as well as to Web portals and to broadband service providers. In the merchant business, it has offered its products and services to Verizon Information Services, merchant aggregators, merchant banks, financial institutions and independent sales organizations. In the wireless business, it delivers its products and application services to wireless carriers and other consumer service companies.  For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, revenues rose 18% to $160.1 million. Net loss before accounting change fell 95% to $6.3M. Results reflect growth in the number of paid searches, greater revenue per search and lower personnel, amortization and impairment costs. The company has made money the last two quarters, with explosive earnings growth.  They are set to report earnings April 28.


In case you were wondering what kind of stocks we day trade in the Paltalk.com rooms, this would be one fine young example.  The “character” of INSP lately would best be described as “explosive move, consolidation, explosive move, consolidation…..”  The last explosive move had a substantial gap and a massive volume surge, what with an upgrade and YHOO’s earnings results “spurring” confidence in net ads.  The boneheads at the major brokerage firms got caught flat-footed by downgrading stocks like YHOO just before these explosive events last week.  We gave extensive coverage in the Swing Report 15 months ago to the first major buy signal in net stocks since the bubble trouble in the year 2000.  The internet changes everything, and we wrote EXTENSIVELY about it at that time.  We have had EBAY and YHOO on the Swing List for over a year, and they have done very nice, thank you very much!  If only the “experts” could come to terms with the fact that the internet is “fairly” important.    See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers, plus a weekly wrap/voice class in Paltalk on Friday.


Market comments.   Two of the top performing sectors from the week before last were again the same, and those were IIX (Internet) +3.9% (see comments above) and SOX +3.3%.  NWX also held up well and was +2.5% for the week (5 day period, which includes the Friday from the week before).  As we have been stating for weeks in the Swing List Review section (of the Swing Report) XXXX (medical stock) has the “makings” of a multi-year hold for huge gains (already +77% in 3 1/2 months).  If you snooze (procrastinate), you loose.  And if you get in late, you have the potential of losing huge amounts of money with a poorly timed entry, because they love to “knock down the leaders.”  There are several strong stocks in the Internet area (IIX) that had a strong finish to the week (last week), and the REALLY good ones are already in the Swing List and have been for a long time, EBAY and YHOO for over a year. WEBX is another internet stock we have had on the Swing List for over 3 months that finished real strong.  This stock is up 62%, and we held through the first quarter of 2004, a quarter that was not very kind to the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which we affectionately re-named the Nazdog!

 

 

Chart of the Day for THURSDAY  04-08-04


There is no Chart of the Day, however, we do have some incisive Market Comment below.  We wish you all happy holidays, both Passover and Easter, and invite you to see Mel Gibson’s movie, and it is rather topical about both.   We had so many in the Paltalk rooms make so much money last week, and especially this week, so all we ask is to keep things in perspective and not to get too excited, so that you can continue to trade wisely and conserve your capital and use it for good for your families and your favorite charities.   See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers, plus a weekly wrap/voice class in Paltalk on Friday.


Market comments.   Explosive moves in many, many “below the radar” stocks, while the major “blue chip” indexes floundered.  We’re so sorry shorts, you TASR shorters, about your untimely demise in your ill-advised short positions that we had on the Swing List, the list that is in the Swing Report, the report that comes out weekly and includes a end-of-week wrap-up session live the Paltalk chat room.  And we’re so sorry about you brokerage (broker-age) houses downgrading stocks like YHOO just before they explode to the upside after announcing blow-out earnings.  YHOO, a stock that is still on the Swing List, the list that is in the Swing Report, and has been on that list since 2/15/03, and has unrealized gains of 155%.
 

 

 

Chart of the Day for WEDNESDAY 04-06-04


PETM  (www.petsmart.com PETsMART is a provider of pet food, supplies, accessories, live pets and professional services for the lifetime needs of pets. As of February 2, 2003, the Company operated 583 retail stores. Its stores carry a selection of quality pet supplies at everyday low prices. The Company offers over 12,000 distinct items, including brand names, as well as a selection of private brands across a range of product categories. It complements its product assortment with a selection of value-added pet services, including grooming and pet training. Virtually all the Company's stores offer complete pet training services and feature pet styling salons that provide grooming services. In addition, through its strategic relationship with Banfield, The Pet Hospital, it offers veterinary care in approximately 300 of the Company's stores.  For the fiscal year ended 2/1/04, revenues increased 11% to $3.00 billion. Net income increased 57% to $139.5 million. Revenues reflect increased comparable store sales and the addition of new stores. Net income also reflects an increase in gross profit due to decreased product costs.



PETM may not be the fastest moving stock on the block, but it has had a nice steady trend for the past year after a panic dump in March 2003.  It has attempted to clear this 28.00 level twice in the past 5 months, closing at 28.41 on volume that was higher than average.  Look at the Gann frame chart for targets of 28.91 and 29.69.  Even though it has cleared a “local” resistance area from about a month ago, there is another resistance area of 28.80 from November 2003.  The 64 frame has a range of 22.31 to 28.45.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers, plus a weekly wrap/voice class in Paltalk every Friday.


Market comments.   The shorts just never seem to learn when it comes to TASR.  Thanks to the shorters, TASR hit our second target of 91.00 (the first was 74.90) that we gave in the Swing Report a week and a half ago!  With one third of the float short, the squeeze can be explosive and violent, and impressive it was!  From a low of 78.55 at 12:55 ET, the shorts thought they had it in the bag (it had just dumped over 2 point in about 10 minutes).  It then proceeded to really crank when the 2:1 split was announced (it just had a 3:1 a few weeks ago).  It hit an intra-day high of 95.49 at 15:30 ET – yes, from 78.55 to 95.49.  Shorting what you think is an overvalued stock can be financially fatal.  The CBS attempted “muck-raking” yellow, sensationalized journalism last w/e “back-fired” big time on the shorts:  Taser was not listed as the cause of death in any of the autopsy reports in which 40 people had coincidentally died when the stun gun was used.  (Remember when AMZN peaked out when Time Magazine had a big cover story; so be careful of the nonsense in the mass media outlets, they pretty much always don’t have a clue and the opposite happens – positive piece, stocks tops; negative piece, the stock explodes, and some include Barrons’ in that category).  For the rest of the market,  first  quarter earnings announcements look like they will come in strong as evidenced by the ratio of negative to positive pre-announcments.  And after last quarter’s weakness in the Nasdaq when they kept selling the good news, this one may be better than many expect (the more that expect a bad price performance quarter, the better!)

 

 

Chart of the Day for TUESDAY  04-06-04


TINY  (www.hhgp.com Harris & Harris Group, Inc. is a venture capital investment company that is operating as a business development company. The Company's investment objective is to achieve long-term capital appreciation, rather than current income, from its investments. The Company has invested a substantial portion of its assets in privately held start-up companies and in the development of new technologies in various industry segments. These privately held businesses generally tend to be thinly capitalized, unproven, small companies based on risky technologies that lack management depth and have not attained profitability nor have any history of operations. In early 2002, the Company decided to focus its new business activities on tiny technology, including, but not limited, to nanotechnology, microsystems and microelectromechanical systems technology. As a venture capital company, the Company invests in and provides managerial assistance to its portfolio companies.  For the nine months ended 9/30/03, investment income decreased 26% to $146 thousand. Net loss totaled $3M vs. an income of $58 thousand. Investment income reflects decreased rental income. Net loss reflects an increased loss on investments held.


We have featured TINY before (a few months ago) as a chart of the day, and we featured another nanotechnology stock last week (Friday), NGEN.  Some charts we feature have already been played in the Paltalk room, and others may be good for future moves and/or follow-through moves. You just have to stop by to find out which is which!  One that we haven’t mentioned in this space falls into the first category, and that is IPIX which was alerted on Friday and which we traded aggressively from the 5.20 to 5.30 area and one trading day later (Monday) it traded as high as 12.07, closing at 11.65 on 50.2 million shares (yes, you read that right).  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers, plus a weekly wrap/voice class in Paltalk on Friday.


Market comments.   The major indexes traded sideways most of the day then just started surging out of their trading ranges in the last hour.  Swing Report subscribers, please reread our unhedged comments about the specific indexes we mentioned.  There are some really amazing patterns.  Volume should be light this week and get lighter into Thursday, with the market closed Friday.  The ISM Nonmanufacturing index went up 5 points to 65.8%, indicating huge amount of strength in the service sector.  This should only help Swing List stocks like URBN (+244% since added), even though it has remained strong all this time.

 

 

Chart of the Day for MONDAY  04-04-04


AKAM  (www.akamai.com Akamai Technologies, Inc. provides services and software that enable private enterprises and government agencies to extend and control their e-business infrastructure. The Company's services are designed to help extend the reach of its clients e-business infrastructures by ensuring high levels of availability, reliability and performance for all their business processes. Through a large distributed computing platform, Akamai offers its customers seamless information flow and robust, confident control of information, enabling the secure delivery of networked information and applications. Its services are built upon its globally distributed platform for content, streaming media and application delivery, which is comprised of more than 13,000 servers within over 1,100 networks in 66 countries.  For the fiscal year ended 12/31/03, revenues rose 11% to $161.3M. Net loss fell 86% to $29.3M. Results reflect an increase in service revenues and a $8.5 million restructuring benefit vs. a $45.8 million charge last year.


AKAM has had a series of higher lows and higher highs since December 2003 after breaking out of a trading range in October 2003 above the 6.00 glass ceiling, and it did this with huge volume during the month of October 2003.  In January 2000, this was a 345 dollar stock, then in October 2002 it went as low as 0.56 cents. So apparently it’s worth something between 0.56 cents and 345, but we’re not exactly sure what it is really worth, so we’ll just “trade it.”   We are looking at resistance target areas on the Gann frame chart of 15.62 and 16.40, and the 5/8 support area of 14.06 (which provided support in February and March). There is also a support area at the middle up-sloping Gann angle marked on the chart, and this coincides with the “waist” of the last bullish candle and comes in at 14.25.  Price closed on Friday at 14.65 and was up 10.56% for the day with the makings of a “breakaway gap” on increased volume of  5.7 mil vs. 4.2 mil average.  See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


Market comments.   In the Swing Report, we repeated a specific turning point in the market that we identified and was pointed out 10 days ago (subscribers please take note).  As well, the market only reverses cleanly once (typically) in a specified time frame, such as the quarterly (3 months) time frame.  This kind of “observation” (about market turning points) is not just mere “commentary” that you can say, “Oh!  That’s interesting” about.  No, this is critical information, and if you don’t “see it right” it could be financially fatal.  You have to train yourself to “see what’s there.”  What may seem obvious to market veterans may be completely “overlooked” by newcomers or even stock brokers with 30 years experience but who “just don’t have a clue” and never will, remaining blithely oblivious.  Also, even if you “see” something in the market that is of critical importance, your “mind set” may be too “fatalistic” or “negativistic” to be able to “capture” or “conceptualize” what is going on.

 

 

Chart of the Day for FRIDAY  04-02-04


NGEN  (www.nanogen.com Nanogen, Inc. develops and commercializes molecular diagnostics products and tests for the gene-based testing market for sale primarily in the United States, Europe and the Pacific Rim. By integrating microelectronics and molecular biology into a core proprietary technology platform, the Company seeks to establish the open-architecture design of its primary products, the NanoChip Molecular Biology Workstation and the NanoChip Cartridge (collectively, the NanoChip System) as the standard platform for molecular identification and analysis. Nanogen also develops analyte specific reagents and other commercial applications for the NanoChip System. The Company continually conducts research and development, by itself and with its subsidiary and third parties, to improve the NanoChip System and to extend its technology to other applications such as biodefense, forensics and drug discovery (protein kinases).  For the nine months ended 9/30/03, revenues fell 8% to $4.6 million. Net loss rose 2% to $24.7 million. Revenues reflect a decline in product sales. Higher net loss also reflects an increase in research and development costs as a percentage of sales.


As we said a few days ago, don’t let a little thing like “fundamentals” get in the way of a good trade.  Some of our BEST trades have the WORST so-called fundamentals.  The surge in some of the stocks we were alerting and playing may have looked like an “April Fool’s” practical joke, but if you were trading these with us, your P&L was real, and certainly no joke!  One of the member of the Platinum Room reports having 47 points in the bank so far this week (with one day to go).  You just can’t put a price on the freedom that knowing how to “trade for a living” gives you.  But making serious money is absolutely no joke.  Neither is losing money by not knowing how to trade.  The amazing thing about NGEN is the Gann frame ranges:  32 frame is 4.41 to 14.95; 64 frame is 2.95 to 14.95.  The 16 frame (see chart below) is 6.41 to 9.64.  Sometimes it is best not to look at too large a frame, and knowing too much of a stock’s history can be distracting, and downright scary.  If you want scary, our long-term (multi-month) target on NGEN is 22.00.   See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


Market comments.   It was a nanotech kind of day (see today’s COD) and MarketMaster was alerting all the major volume players.  We alerted specific levels on some of these like today’s COD, and especially the 8.20 to 8.60 level that it cleared in the afternoon.  First it was biotech, then it was internet, now it’s nanotech.  Nothing like a good, old-fashioned bubble to get things rolling (new technologies have a history of that). Some nanote60nology actually combines biotech with nanotech.  More mundanely, factory and jobs data helped lift the major indexes somewhat, and keep their bullish tone alive.  The jobless claims number implies a strong jobs (or “employment situation”) report on Friday, to be released at 8:30 ET.  Pretty soon, they are going to have to add a “Nanotech index” – perhaps the symbol will be NTX (hey, at least we didn’t turn it into a belated April Fool’s joke!)  We are happy to say that oil took a big dump down to near the 34 level.  We were looking for a “tenuous bounce” off the 35.00 support, and we were happy to see that give way.  If you look at the P&F chart, there is a bearish High Pole Warning pattern.  There is also a bearish oscillator divergence on the weekly chart, with a double top from a year ago.  The next support level is 32.00, but we of course would like to see the stinking sludge go to 10.00 where it belongs!  The “bullish percent index” (the percent of charts in that index that are in bullish breakout mode on the P&F chart) on the NDX had a very nice bullish reversal, moving up 4.75% to 44.00%, so the market are internals continue to show strength below the surface and are not really showing up in the major indexes.

 

 

Chart of the Day for THURSDAY  04-01-04


IVIL  (www.ivillage.com iVillage Inc. is a media company that operates iVillage.com, Women.com, iVillage Parenting Network, Inc. (IVPN), Public Affairs Group, Inc. (PAG), Promotions.com, iVillage Consulting and Astrology.com. iVillage.com and Women.com are women's online destinations providing practical solutions and everyday support for women 18 and over. IVPN is a holding company for Lamaze Publishing, a publisher of advertiser-supported educational materials for expectant and new parents, and iVillage Integrated Properties, Inc., the operator of The Newborn Channel, a satellite television network broadcast in over 1,050 hospitals nationwide. IVPN is also the publisher of Baby Steps magazine. PAG is comprised of three divisions, each offering extensive databases of pertinent information to subscribing companies and members. Promotions.com provides promotions and direct marketing programs that are integrated with customers' offline marketing initiatives.  For the nine months ended 9/30/03, total revenues fell 14% to $39.4 million. Net loss before acct. change rose 59% to $27.5 million. Results reflect the expiration of some long-term sponsorship contracts and increased impairment and other special charges.


IVIL is now breaking even or better, and is set to actually earn 14 cents in fiscal 2005.  Big volume came in on Wednesday as price broke above resistance of the 5/8 line at 6.64.  The 16 frame range is 4.79 to 7.26.   Note also the “high wave” doji (marked on the chart).  Targets of 7.81, and 7.41 are marked on the chart also.   See this “Swing Trading” link for Q&A about our market methodology and trading philosophy for further information about how we approach the market.  Paying members get the early bird signals on these power movers.


Market comments.   Nice end of day buy program kicked the ES up 8 points in the afternoon.  We’re still in a bit of a news void exceptgraph259d earnings reports.  The Chicago PMI came in lower than expected but continues to show good expansion in manufacturing.  The small and mid cap indexes are showing some promise, and their strength helped advancers beat decliners despite the major indexes being down a little for the day.